A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—2.4.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—51178.15---High—51683.85---Low—50742---Close—50827.50 on 1.4.2025.     

Support:50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/51979.75/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a huge loss of 737.35 points. Looking at today’s down move further fall cannot be ruled out, so be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup has got a jolt today as it has made lower top & bottom on the line chart today; furthermore it fell below  few of its long term moving average on the daily chart and the first such average is placed at 51337(figure will change every day), it also fell below its recent pullback threshold point of 51053.98(figure may Change),  it slipped into correction mode for its recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 51034.67(figure may change)   and most  importantly  it closed below   its  important & critical points of 50841.90 & 50860.20, please note that it is essential  to stay above these points to keep the chances of a continued up move alive in the year 2025. Therefore, all together it has painted a very weak picture today, so it may drift down further. But please note that despite all the devastation today if it manages to hold its first & second make or break bottom of 50369.40 & 49654.65 on the closing basis then it can still bounce back and may resume the up-move again, but break & sustained close below 50369.40 will trigger fresh fall, and finally break & sustained close below 49654.65 may accelerate the fall and then the up move may end for a while and will put the long term uptrend in potential danger.  Moving down further broad support points could be at 49368---48731---48574, it could bounce back from any of these points, but break and sustained close below 48574 can drag it down to the range of 47756---47745---47702, this is a very strong bounce back range, but break & sustained close below this range canl take it down further to the range of 46437---46077 and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 44500 levels or lower, which may please be noted.

 Similarly moving up the broad resistance points could be at 50841.90---50860.20----51034.67---51053.98----51337----51403----51559-----51752----51800 (some figures may change), it may correct at any of these points, but please note that to keep the chances of up-move alive in the year-2025 it has to move above 50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain on the closing basis, else it may drift down, if it moves above 51034.67 & 51053.98 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get out of its recent correction mode and chances of up-move will enhance, if it moves above 51337(figure will change every day) and sustain on the closing then it will provide good strength to extend the up move for sure and finally if it moves above 51800 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its recent high of 52063.95 or may go beyond it also.    

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has made lower top & bottom on the line and bar chart, except for few it is above almost all its short & medium on the daily, weekly & monthly chart, but today it fell below few long term moving averages on the daily chart which is concerning for the continuation of the up-move. But all the important technical indicators are positive now with majorly in the buy mode, but in the overbought zone on the daily chart, so, it may correct at times, it did corrected today and closed below few critical points, so all together it is emitting mixed signal now therefore, it can move either way tomorrow but looking at today’s move the tilt is towards downside. So, please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are positive now and majorly in the buy mode and most importantly MACD & ADX has turned into the buy mode, but it is in the overbought zone, so it can correct at times. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ neutral zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive for the up-move , but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods therefore further fall may be on the horizon in coming weeks or  months.

IT IS SELL ON THE MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, it is below its pullback & correction threshold points, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it close above 50841.90 &50860.20 and then above 51034.67 & 51053.98 and sustain on the closing basis, but long trade can also be tried on decline near critical  support points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. Almost all the important technical indicators are positive now with majorly in the buy mode.

2. It is almost above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 51144--50816--50716---50221---50091----49534(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may witness an extended up-move.

3. It is above its medium & long pullback threshold point of 49162.65----49300 (figure may change), sustained close above these points can help it to extend the up-move.

4. It is above its most crucial bottom of 50369.40 & 49654.65, if it sustains above these on the closing basis then the up-move is likely to extend further for sure.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. It is in the deep overbought zone on the daily chart, so, it is correcting for the last two days.

3. It has made lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart.

4. It is below its recent correction threshold point of 51034.67(figure may change).

5. It is below its recent fall pullback threshold point of 51053.98 (figure may change), sustained close below this could drag it down further.

6. It is below its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down sharply.

7. It is below few of its long-term moving averages and the whole range is between 51337---49668 (the range will change every day). Please note that if it sustain below 51337(figure will change every day) on the closing basis then it will pose challenge for the continuation of the up-move and may drift down.

8. The price action was positive today.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range 50500----50400 but not below it with a stop loss of 50300 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51250—51300 with a stop loss of 51450 or can sell if it moves below 50795 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 50900. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.