A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-4.2.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—23319.35—High—23381.60---Low---23222--Close---23361.05 on 3.2.2025.

Support:23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.

Resistance:23391.65/23426.30/23484.15/23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 121.10 points. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

It is already into the deep corrective mode and the overall technical setup is very weak and most importantly its long term uptrend is jeopardized as it is below  all its long term moving averages, therefore further fall is very much on the cards in coming times. But the good thing is that its short term parameters have improved  on the daily chart as it is above its short & medium term pullback threshold point and above all its short term moving averages also, but it slipped into short correction mode today for its recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 23433(figure may change), however moving down further if it holds the range of 23341---23200(figures may change every day) on the closing basis then it can still bounce back and may resume the up-move but it may gain some strength if it moves above 23433 for the continuation of the up-move. But break & sustained close below this range of 23341---23200 will weaken it and up-move may end and it may start to move down and then moving down its most important & critical support points could be at 22976.85--22794.70---22786.90---22768.40 & 23725, break & sustained close below these points and particularly below 22725 which is major rising trend line count for the month of February-2025 may trigger fresh fall and it may witness an accelerated fall and then the next strong support range would be at 22281—22165---21821---21710 and it could bounce back from this range, but break and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 21137 or lower, which may please be noted. The short-term bias seems up now, but medium-term trend is down and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened and in jeopardy now. The overall bias is negative as of now.

Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 23504---23611---23637.65---23644.80---23745----23893.70----24013-----24064----24138----24182---24317(figures will change daily). Please note that,  if it moves above 23504 and sustain on the closing basis then it will gain some strength , if it moves above 23611 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get good strength  and may enhance the chances of extending the up-move further, if it moves above 23637.65---23644.80 and sustain on the closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for an up-move in the year 2025,if it move above 23893.70  and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold to build the strong up-move and then the up move is likely to extend further and if it moves above the range of 24138----24182---24317 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. But to get good strength for the continuation of the up-move and to get into strong up-momentum track it has to move above 24481.42---24625.43---24753.15---24857.75 & 25078.30 (figure may change) particularly above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis.

HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY CHART:-It is decisively below its neckline which is placed at 23893.70 and if it sustain below it on the closing basis then the maximum downside target could be in the range of 21850---21510. Please note that this pattern will be partly negated if it moves above 23893.70 and fully  negated if it moves above 24857.75 & 25078.35. This is a very powerful pattern and rarely fails. It is therefore suggested that do not remain short if it closes above the neckline of 23893.70 and sustain, similarly do not remain long if it closes below it.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has crossed its recent top on the line chart and  it is above all its short term moving averages on the daily chart, which is a positive  sign for the continuation of the up move, , but it is still below  all the averages on the weekly & below few on the monthly chart also, it is below all its medium term moving average on the daily chart & below few averages on the weekly chart too and most importantly it is below  all its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly  concerning and jeopardized the long term uptrend. But four out of seven important technical indicators are positive now and three indicators are in buy mode and huge positive divergence in one, but inching towards overbought zone in two and sell mode in one indicator, therefore, it can still resume the up-move if it hold the range of 23341---23200 (range will change every day) may be with-in-between down move.. Please keep an eye on the price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on in the maximum indicators, there is huge negative divergence but it is in the oversold zone and may stage a recovery but that may not last. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and MACD has triggered sell. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and the down move is on. So, keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, but pullback mode is on therefore  buy on decline can be tried  at appropriate support point  with strict stop loss , similarly short trade  can also be tried  after reasonable  rise at appropriate resistance points  with strict stop losses for intraday corrective gains.

 

STRENGTH: -

1. It is above its very short, short & medium pullback threshold point of 22938---23127 & 23276 (figure may change), sustained close it may help it to move-up further.

2. Four out of seven technical indicators are positive on the daily chart with buy signal in three and with huge positive divergence in one indicator.

3. It crossed its recent top on the line chart.

4 It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 23341----23284----23267----23250---23225---23200(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range will help in extending the up-move.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Please note that almost all indicators on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode is on and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates overbought condition and negative divergence.    

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction deep mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43-----24521.63--- 24481.42-----24047.39----23659.18---23432.90 (figures may change). The other important correction threshold point is 21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen.

4. It is in the overbought zone on the daily chart and one indicator in the sell mode.

5 It is below its long pullback threshold point of 23611 (figure may change), sustained close below this point will help it to extend down move.

6. It is below its most critical points of 23644.80 & 23637.65; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025.

7. It is below all its long-term moving averages therefore severely threatened the uptrend.

8. The price action was positive today.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 23321---23230 with a stop loss of 23170 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.  

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23480----23520 with a stop loss of 23570. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com