A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-19.2.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—22963.65—High—22992.50---Low---22801.50--Close---22945.30 on 18.2.2025.

Support:22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.

Resistance:22976.85/23047.25/23110.80/23263.15/23338.70/23391.65/23426.30/23484.15/23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened on a flat to positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a small loss of 14.20 points. As expected yesterdays up-move took a breather today but likely to fizzle out soon. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, this is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup on the daily chart is very weak, as it is below all its recent critical support points and below all its short, medium & long term moving averages on the daily chart. It is into deep correction mode for its earlier and recent rise, it is also below all its pullback threshold points. So, all together it is exhibiting grossly weak undertone, and therefore further fall looks inevitable in the coming days. However it is still holding its most important and critical range of 22794.70---22786.90---22768.40 & 22720 (it bounced back from this range today again, in fact in the last 18 trading session it bounced back 5 times from this range including today) so, it is a very strong support range therefore if it sustains above this range on the closing basis then it can have an up-move for a while and possibly it may resume the continued up-move again. But it is important to mention here that looking at the weekly & monthly chart setup and technical parameters as of now the aforesaid range is likely to be broken in coming times but as long as it holds the range chances of up-move will be alive. But please note that break & sustained close below the above points and particularly below 22720(figure will change every day) which is major rising trend line count for the day may trigger fresh fall and then it may witness an accelerated fall and the next strong support points would be at 22281—22165---21821---21777.65---21710---21530 and it could bounce back from this range, but break and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 21137 or lower, which may please be noted. It is important to mention here that as of now it is also weak on the weekly & monthly chart technical parameters  therefore it is  not yet out of woods for the long term and may witness moderate to sharp fall in coming weeks & months, but it has to reviewed at regular interval for any potential positive/negative change. The short and medium-term trend is down and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened and in jeopardy now.   

Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 22980.77----23125---23223----23245----23467---23563.70----23618----23637.65----23644.80---23709----23893.70----23934----23979-----24057----24098----24184----24235(some figures may change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 22980.77( it is a short pullback threshold point) and sustain on the closing basis then it may give some hope to move up further, if it moves above 23125---23223----23245 and sustain on the closing basis then it may gain some strength to extend the up-move, if it moves above 23467 and sustain on the closing basis then it will strengthen further, if it moves above 23563.70  which is a long pullback threshold point then it will enhance the chances of a continued up-move but to keep the hope of strong up move alive in the 2025 it has to move above 23637.65----23644.80 and sustain on the closing basis, else it may start to drift down, if it move above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold to build the strong up-move and then the up move is likely to extend further for sure and if it moves above the range of 24098----24184----24235 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. But to get good strength for the continuation of the up-move and to get into strong up-momentum track it has to move above 24481.42---24625.43---24753.15---24857.75 & 25078.30 (figure may change) particularly above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis.

HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY CHART:-It is still  below its neckline which is placed at 23893.70 and if it sustain below it on the closing basis then the maximum downside target could be in the range of 21850---21510. Please note that this pattern will be partly negated if it moves above 23893.70 and sustain and it will be fully  negated if it moves above 24857.75 & 25078.35. This is a very powerful pattern and rarely fails. It is therefore suggested that do not remain short if it closes above the neckline of 23893.70 and sustain, similarly do not remain long if it closes below it.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It still has lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart ,  it is below all its short term moving averages on the daily & weekly chart and below some on the monthly chart also, it is also below all its medium term moving average on the daily chart & below few averages on the weekly chart too and most importantly it is below all its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is  a severe threat to the long term uptrend and is highly  concerning and jeopardized the long term uptrend for now. Furthermore, five out of seven important technical indicators are negative now four are in sell mode, but the slight comforting thing is that two out of seven indicators are positive with slight positive divergence and in the oversold zone. Therefore, in totality it is emitting mixed signal but broadly towards weakness and may move down further in coming day if it does not bounce back above 23245 & 23645 and sustain on the closing basis in the shortest possible time. Please keep an eye on the price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on in four indicators, there is huge negative divergence but it is in the oversold zone and may stage a recovery but that may not last. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and MACD has triggered sell. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and the down move is on. So, keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, and pullback threshold point is also broken  therefore  it is sell on the rise market now  in general , but long trade can also be tried on the decline near critical support points  with strict stop loss , for intraday corrective gains. It is suggested to avoid long trade in general till it closes above 23245 and sustain on the closing basis.

STRENGTH: -

1. Two out of seven technical indicators are positive on the daily chart with slight positive divergence and in oversold zone.

2. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Please note that almost all indicators on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode is on and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates overbought condition and negative divergence.    

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction deep mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43-----24521.63--- 24481.42-----24047.39----23669.17---23566.49 (figures may change). The other important correction threshold point is 21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen.

4. Five out of seven technical indicators are negative on the daily chart with all in the sell mode.

5. It is below all its long-term moving averages on the daily chart therefore severely threatened the uptrend.

6. It is below its short, medium & long pullback threshold point of 22980.77---23228.67---23563.70 (figure may change), sustained close below these points can weaken the chances of an up-move and it starts to moves down.

7. It is below its most critical points of 23644.80 & 23637.65; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025.

8 It is below almost all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 23241----23234----23223----23125---23082(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may accelerate the down move.

9. It has lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried if it holds 22930 for some time then but not below it with a stop loss of 22840 or can buy if it moves above 22960 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 22880 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.  

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23090----23140 with a stop loss of 23200 or can sell if it moves below 22890 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 22970. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com