A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—10.2.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—50484.45---High—50641.75---Low—49871.15---Close—50158.85 on 7.2.2025. 

Support:49974.75/49904.40/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49057.40/48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 223.25 points. The gap it created on 4.2.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 1--2 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come down to 49373, but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but it will fill the gap some day. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The chart setup and technical parameters on the daily chart has improved a bit but it slipped into short correction mode today for its recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 50232.82, but the good points is that it is still holding its other major  key & crucial points of 49981.52-----49890---49654.65----49408(some figure may change) ,if it sustain above these points then the on-going up-move can extend further, but break & sustained close below 49981.52 will push it into deep correction mode for its recent rise, break & sustained close below 49896 will weaken it further, break & sustained close below 49654.65 & 49408 may potentially end the possibility of continuing the up-move , however moving down further if it manages to hold the point of 49182(figures will change every day) on the closing basis then there could be a slim  chance that it could still bounce back but it may resume the good up move again only once it moves above 49654.65 and sustain on the closing basis, but break & sustained close below 49182 may end the up-move for sure and it may  drift down. It is important to mention here that as of now it is still weak on the weekly & monthly chart technical parameters  therefore it is  not yet out of woods and may witness moderate to sharp fall in coming weeks & months, but it has to reviewed at regular interval for any potential positive/negative change.  The short-term bias is up now, but medium-term trend is still down and the long-term uptrend is still threatened and in jeopardy now.

Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 50567----50766----50841.90---50860.20----50898-----51083---51239-----51430(some figure will change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain on the closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for the up move to continue in the year 2025 and if it moves above the range of 51083---51239-----51430 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and then it is likely to extend the up-move for sure. But please note that it may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move if it moves above 52679.47 & 52920.42 (figure may change daily) and sustain on the closing basis and finally to get back into the strong up-momentum track again it has to move above 53142.71----53331.55----53370.43----53500.30(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that if it moves above 53142.71 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35 or may go beyond it also.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It is making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart and  above all its short term moving average on the daily chart and above few on the weekly & monthly chart also, above few medium term moving average on the daily & weekly chart and most importantly above one long term moving average also, therefore all together it is a positive  sign for the continuation of the up move , but it is still below few of its short term moving average on the weekly & below few on the monthly chart also , it is majorly below  its medium term moving average on the daily chart & below few averages on the weekly chart too and most importantly it is below almost all its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is still a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly  concerning and jeopardized the long term uptrend. But all the seven important technical indicators are positive now with five in the buy mode and one with huge positive divergence, but it is in the  overbought zone, therefore, in totality it can extend the up-move  may be with-in-between down move, provided it holds the support range as mentioned in the first paragraph. Please keep an eye on the price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it is in the sell signal in maximum indicators, and huge negative divergence is there but is in the oversold zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, but pullback mode is on therefore  buy on decline can be tried  at appropriate support point  with strict stop loss , similarly short trade  can also be tried  after reasonable  rise at appropriate resistance points  with strict stop losses for intraday corrective gains. As long as it holds 49655 on the closing basis long trade can be tried on decline but not below it with a strict stop loss.

STRENGTH: -

1. All the seven technical indicators are positive on the daily chart with buy signal in five & positive divergence in one.

2. It is above its very short, short, medium & long term pullback threshold point of 48271--- 48748---49271  & 49408(figure may change), sustained close above these points will help it to extend the up-move.

3 It is above almost all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 49911---49756---49669---49633-----49448----49182(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it to move-up further.

4. It is making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart.

5. It moved above its crucial bottom of 49654.65.

6. The price action was mixed today.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Please note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators, in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence & on the monthly chart, indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and triggered sell mode also.

3. It is below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93-----50725.73----50232.12---- (figure may change) and if it sustains below these points then it may extend the down move. The other important key correction threshold points are 49981.52---49201.72--- 45416.49 (figure may change)  

4. It is in overbought zone.

5. The long-term uptrend is in jeopardy as it is below almost all its long-term moving averages.

6. It is below its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down sharply.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 49990-----49890 with a stop loss of 49570 or if it moves above 50385 and maintain for some time then with a stop loss of 50100 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 50750—50850 with a stop loss of 50980 .It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.