A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-14.8.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-24342.35--High-24359.95—Low24116.50---Close-24139 on 13.8.2024.

Support:24074.20/23992.65/23985.80/23667.10/23350/23338.70/23206.65/23110.80/22794.70/22768.40/22526.60/22417/2303.80/22297/22224.35/22126.80/21860/21821.05/21801.45/21777.65/21731.40/21727.75/21710.20.

Resistance:24141.80/24168.85/24210.80/24419.75/24461.05/24854.80/24999.75/25078.30/25152/25337/25494/25551/26118.

OVERALL VIEW: --

It opened on a flat to negative note and thereafter had both side moves in a short range during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 208 points. Please note that the stipulated  time for filling the gap of 2.8.2024 & 5.8.2024 has ended but it will surely fill the gap one day  (gap figure is 24686.85 & 24956.40), which please keep this in mind. The technical setup is weak, it is having see-saw movement every other day with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, furthermore the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is still present but it has neutralized on the daily chart to some extent, therefore it seems that it can move in a range or move up for some time and then may go down further may be with in-between short relief rallies. It is already into the correction mode for its recent rise, furthermore it is also below all its short term moving averages and few medium term moving averages on the daily chart and below few short term moving averages on the weekly chart also. Furthermore almost all important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart and few on the weekly & monthly chart are also negative, pointing that the down move is likely to be resumed after some time. It is most important to mention here that today it closed below its pullback threshold points of 24173.27 & 24182.24, which is a very negative sign and if it stays below it on the closing basis then the down move will continue.

Moving down from here it may find good support at 24074---23992.70---23985.80----23893.70---23757----23695----23667.10---23627.90---23450---23350---23338.70---23284----23180---23110.80---22732---22178----22040, break below each point will weaken it, break and close below 23992.70---23985.80 & 23893.70 may trigger fresh fall, break and close below the range of 23695---23667.10 & 23627.90 may accelerate the fall further and thereafter break and close below each point will weaken it further and finally break and sustained close below 22040 can drag it down to 21281 level or below.  

Similarly moving up from here its broad resistance points would be at 24173.27---224182.24---4368---24486—24515-----24626-----24799----24841.38----24854.80(some figure may change, for in between resistance points see the table on the up side), it may correct at any of these points but if it moves above 24173.27 & 24182.24 and sustain on the closing basis then it can extend the up move, if it moves above  24515 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get into the up momentum track again and finally if it moves above 24854.80 and sustain on the closing basis, then it could retest its all-time high of 25078.30 or may go beyond it also. Please note that sustained close below 24182.24 & 24173.27 will make the on-going correction more painful price-wise & time-wise both.

Since it is into correction mode therefore it is still sell on the rise market and sell on the price breakdown in general but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains. Please note that since it is into deep correction mode therefore buy trade could be a slightly risky affair.

NOTE: - MOVING DOWN IF IT HOLDS THE RANGE OF 23992.70---23985.80 & 23893.70 THEN IT CAN BOUNCE BACK ELSE DOWN MAY CONTINUE. SIMILARLY IF IT MOVES ABOVE 24173.27 & 24182.24 AND SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN THE UP MOVE CAN EXTEND. IT IS IN THE LONG TERM UPTREND, BUT IT IS IN CORRECTIVE MODE NOW.  

STRENGTH:-

1. It is in the long term uptrend now.   

2. It is well above its critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. It still has higher top & bottom on the line chart.

4. Two out of seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart, indicating slightly oversold condition. 

WEAKNESS:-.

1. Six out of seven important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart    

2. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

3. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

4. It is into deep correction mode now as it is below all its correction threshold point of 24873.57----24841.33----24670.42---24636.50 & 24182.24 (figures may change). ld point is (figure may change) and sustained close below 24182.24 will make the correction more deeper and painful.

5. It is below almost all its short term moving averages on the daily chart and the important range for the day is between 24537----24475----24472----24399---24388----24339(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can deepen the down move.

6. The price action was weak today.

7. It is below its important pullback threshold point of 24173.27 & 24182.24(figure may change).  Please note that if it sustains below it on the closing basis then the down move may continue.

8. It has lower top on the bar chart.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till it closes above 24182.24, however aggressive traders can try long trade if it holds 24117 for some time with a stop loss of 24060 or can long trade on decline near or within the range of 23992----23895 with a stop loss of 23840 for possible intraday gains, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains. 

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24300--24330 with a stop loss of 24400 or can sell if it moves below 24100 with a stop loss of 24200 It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com