CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—49887.15--High—49959.25--Low—49654.65---Close—49727.30
on 14.8.2024.
Support:49659.05/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:49974.75/50438.20/51133.20/51138.90/51749.45/51957.75/51996.65/52340.25/52547.55/52782.75/52794.95/52817.85/53180.75/53357.70/53477/53503/53575/53633/53773/53913/53970/54070/54139/54257/54365/54604/54815/55097.
OVERALL VIEW: --
It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side
moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 104.55
points. Please note that it moved in a
short range today, therefore it seems that it may be bracing for a big move on
the either side in next 1-2 trading sessions, so watch out the price action.
The stipulated time for filling the gap of 5.8.2024 has ended on 12.8.2024
but it will surely fill the gap one day
(gap figure is -51087.85), which please keep in mind.
The technical setup is weak, furthermore the volatility is still there
and the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is also present
but it has neutralized on the daily chart to some extent, therefore it seems
that it may go down further from here may be with in- between short relief
rallies. It is already into deep correction mode for its recent rise and also
into correction for the earlier rise; it has also fallen below its pullback
threshold points of 50529 & 50289(figure
may change), furthermore it is below all its short term moving averages on
the daily & weekly chart and also below few medium term moving averages on
the daily chart. Almost all important technical indicators are negative on the
daily chart and few on the weekly & monthly chart are also negative, pointing
that the down move is likely to continue. Moving down from here it may find
good support at 49717.78----49659----49530----49444----49339------49101---48853.755----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47795.89----47533.83(figures
may change),
it can bounce back from any of these points, but break below each point will
weaken it. Please note that the range of
49659---49444----49339-----49101 is a very strong bounce back support range,
but sustained break and close below 49659 will trigger fresh fall, break and
sustained close below 49444 will threaten the long term uptrend and finally sustained break and close below
the range of 48636.45---48292.25 &48203.45 will trigger fresh fall and that
could be sharp in the intensity and then the correction could be more painful
time-wise and price-wise both. Sustained close below 47533.83 can drag it down to 46077 or lower.
Similarly moving up from here it will face strong resistance
at 50289—50529--- 50681-----50997----51070---51314----51417---51506---51569-----51639.66----51706----51803----51943----52340----52484----52618(some
figure may change), it may correct at any of these points, but if it moves
above 50289 & 50529 and sustain
on the closing basis then the up move can extend, else down move may continue,
if it moves above 51030---51406 & 51639.66
and sustain on the closing basis then it may get into the up momentum track
again and thereafter crossing each point will strengthen the up move and
finally if it moves above 52618 and
sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 53357.70 or may go beyond it.
Since it is into correction mode
therefore it is still sell on the rise market and sell on the price breakdown
in general but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for
intraday gains. Please note that since it is into deep correction mode
therefore buy trade could be a risky affair.
NOTE: - MOVING DOWN IF IT HOLDS THE RANGE OF 49659---49444----49339----49101(FIGURE
MAY CHANGE) ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN IT IS LIKELY TO BOUNCE BACK, ELSE
DOWN MOVE MAY CONTINUE. THE LONG TERM UPTREND IS STILL INTACT BUT SHORT TERM
TREND IS BEARISH AS OF NOW.
STRENGTH:-
1. It is in
the long term uptrend now, but break below 49444 will threaten the long
term uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. Two out of
seven indicators is positive now, pointing that it is slightly oversold now, so
it may have short relief rally nothing much positive as of now.
WEAKNESS:-
1. It is already into deep correction mode now as it
is below all its important correction threshold point of 53036.49---- 52834.06----52454.47---52167.20---51891.39---51853.33--- 51639.66----51250.53-----50702.16 & 49878(figure may change), which is a
very weak sign.
2. Some
important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and
monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and
months.
3. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
4. Five out
of seven important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart now.
5. It is
below almost all its short term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for today is between 51406---51028---50808----50609----50373----50365---50161(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can deepen
the down move.
6. It still
has lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart.
7. The price
action was weak today.
8. It is
below its important pullback threshold point of 50289 & 50529(figure may change). Please note
that if it sustains below it then the down move may continue.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till it
closes above 50529, however aggressive traders can try long trade on
decline near or within the range of 49650----49443 with a stop loss of 49200
for possible intraday gains, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a
corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for
intraday gains.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 50050---50150 with
a stop loss of 50250 or can sell if it moves below 49651 and stay
for some time with a stop loss of 49820 It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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