2 2 2
CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—50612.10--High—50707.75--Low—50386.45---Close—50484.50
on 9.8.2024.
Support:50438.20/49974.75/49659.05/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.
Resistance:51133.20/51138.90/51749.45/51957.75/51996.65/52340.25/52547.55/52782.75/52794.95/52817.85/53180.75/53357.70/53477/53503/53575/53633/53773/53913/53970/54070/54139/54257/54365/54604/54815/55097.
OVERALL VIEW: --
It opened on a big positive note and thereafter had both side
moves and finally ended the day with a gain of 327.80 points. But the weakness
still persists. The gap
it created on 5.8.2024 is still
there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 1 trading sessions which is technically
possible then it can come up to 51087.85,
but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of
filling the gap will recede for the time being but one day if will fill the gap
for sure, which please keep in mind. The technical setup is weak, furthermore
the volatility is still there and the overbought condition on the weekly and
monthly chart is also present but it has neutralized on the daily chart to some
extent, therefore it seems that it may go down further from here may be with in-
between short relief rallies. It is already into deep correction mode for its
recent rise and also into correction for the earlier rise; furthermore it is
below all its short term moving averages on the daily & below few on the weekly
chart and also below few medium term moving averages on the daily chart.
Furthermore almost all important technical indicators are negative on the daily
chart and few on the weekly & monthly chart are also negative, pointing
that the down move is likely to continue. Moving down from here it may
find good support at 50292—49800----49717.78----49659----49530----49371----49322-----49167-----49029---48853.755----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47795.89----47533.83(figures
may change),
it may bounce back from any of these points, please note that if it holds 50292(short pullback threshold point)
on the closing basis then there is a feeble chance that it can extend the up
move, the range of 49400----49373----49232----49063
is a very strong bounce back support range, but sustained break and close below
49373 will threaten the long term uptrend and
finally sustained break and close below the range of 48636.45---48292.25
&48203.45
will trigger fresh fall and that could be sharp in the intensity and then the
correction could be more painful time-wise and price-wise both. Sustained close
below 47533.83 can drag it
down to 46077 or lower.
Similarly moving up it will face strong resistance at 50532---50683---51000---51072---51316-51378-----51508---51569-----51553.40---51639.66---51672.60----51708----51804----51945----52340----52485----52618(some
figure may change), if it moves above 50532(strong
pullback threshold point) and sustain on the closing basis then there will
be a strong chance that it can extend the up move if it moves above 51378 & 51639.66 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get into the
strong up momentum track again , else down
move may continue.
Since it is into correction mode
therefore it is still sell on the rise market and sell on the price breakdown
in general but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for
intraday gains. Please note that since it is into deep correction mode
therefore buy trade could be a risky affair.
NOTE: - IF IT SUSTAIN ABOVE 50292 ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN IT CAN POSSIBLY
EXTEND THE UP MOVE. BUT TO KEEP THE HOPE OF UP MOMENTUM ALIVE IN THE YEAR 2024
IT HAS TO STAY ABOVE 49373----48636.45---48292.25 & 48203.45 ON THE CLOSING
BASIS, ELSE IT MAY WITNESS AN ACCELERATED FALL. THE LONG TERM UPTREND IS STILL
INTACT BUT SHORT TERM TREND IS BEARISH AS OF NOW.
STRENGTH:-
1. It is in
the long term uptrend now, but break below 49373 will threaten the long
term uptrend.
2. It is well
above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these
points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.
3. The price
action was positive today.
4. One out of seven indicators is positive
now, pointing slightly oversold condition, so it may have short relief rally
nothing much positive.
5. It is above
its feeble pullback threshold point of 50292 (figure may change). Please
note that if it sustains above it on the closing basis then it could possibly
move ahead further, else down move may continue.
WEAKNESS:-
1. It is already into deep correction mode now as it is
below all its important correction threshold point of 53036.49---- 52834.06----52454.47---52167.20---51891.39---51853.33--- 51639.66----51250.53-----50702.16 & 49878(figure may change), which is a very weak sign.
2. Some important
technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart
and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.
3. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for
a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
4. Six out of
seven important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart now.
5. It is below
all its short term moving averages now
on the daily chart and the important average range for today is between 51378---51084----50960----50798----50688---50511(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can deepen
the down move.
6. It still has
lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart.
7. It is below
its strong pullback threshold point of 50532 (figure may change). Please note that if it moves and sustains
above it on the closing basis then it could possibly move ahead further, else
down move may continue.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till it
closes above 50532; but can try long trade if it holds 50438.30 for
some time with a stop loss of 50280, however aggressive traders can try
long trade on decline near 50292 with a stop loss of 50100 or can
try if it moves above 50565 and maintain for some time with a stop loss
of 50380 for possible intraday gains, else avoid. Please note that
long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for
intraday gains.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 50800---50850 with
a stop loss of 50950 or can sell if it remains below 50290 with a
stop loss of 50540. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then
trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use
support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss
points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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