A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—7.6.2024

 

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CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—49426.40--High—49672.75--Low—48906.75---Close—49291.90 on 6.6.2024.

Support:49202/49057.40/48636.45/48381.95/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/47435.25/47340.35/46983.25/46579.05/45828.80/45661.75/44633.55/44429.                           

Resistance:49688.85/49974.75/50153.81/50467.77/50889.65/51133.20/51470/51823/51969/52218/52966.

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side swings during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 237.30 points. After yesterday’s sharp rise it consolidated today but today’s up move also lacked volumes again, therefore I am still apprehensive whether the on-going pullback up move will sustain or not, furthermore it has retraced more than 61.80% from its recent bottom of 46077.85, and if does not move above 49940---49975 & 50122.13 in the next 2-3 trading sessions and sustain on the closing basis then there is a fair possibilities that the on-going pullback may fizzle out any time soon, so watch out. However as long as it holds its most critical range of 48636.45---48292.25 &48203.45 the chances of up move will be alive; else it may head down again. 

STRENGTH:-

1. It is still in the long term uptrend; break below 47362 will threaten the long term uptrend.

2. It is above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.

3. It is well above its pullback threshold point of 47271(figure may change), and if it sustains above it then the possible broad upside target points could be at 49551---49688.85----49940---50122.13----50153.81---50467.77. Please note that if it moves above 50122.13 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 51133.20 or may go beyond it.

4. It has bounced back above all its short & medium  term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, and the important range is between 48963----48951---48856---48745---48636.45---48471---48293---48203(figure will change every day), sustained break below this range can trigger down move again.

5. Two out of five important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart.

6. The price action has been mixed for the last few days and today it was positive.

WEAKNESS:-

1. It is into deep correction mode for its earlier and its recent rise and it will get out of all corrective mode once it moves above 49551---50153.81 &50467.77 and sustain on the closing basis.

2. It has broken all tops & bottoms on the line chart and bar chart at one go on 4.6.2024.

3. Some important technical indicators are weak on the daily/weekly and monthly charts and pointing that it could head down to lower levels in coming days/weeks and months.

4. Volatility can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.  

OVERALL VIEW: -- Please note that the last two days pullback up move lacked volumes, therefore this rally is not likely to sustain, so watch out for next-1-2 trading sessions how it pans out. However as long as it holds the range of 48636.45---48292.25 &48203.45 chances of continuation of the up move may be alive, else it may drift down. Since it is in  corrective mode therefore it is sell on the rise market now in general, but long trade can also be attempted at crucial and critical support point with strict stop loss for pullback gains.

TRADING CALL: --                                                                   

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 48930 with a stop loss of 48800 or on sharp decline near 48636.45 with a stop loss of 48390 for pullback gains, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 49750---49870 with a stop loss of 50060 or can sell below 48800 with a stop loss of 49060. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.