A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—18.6.2024

 

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CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—49993.95--High—50102.60--Low—49693.35---Close—50002 on 14.6.2024.

Support:49974.75/49688.85/49202/49057.40/48636.45/48381.95/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/47435.25/47340.35/46983.25/46579.05/45828.80/45661.75/44633.55/44429.                           

Resistance:50122.13/50153.81/50467.77/50889.65/51133.20/51470/51823/51969/52218/52966.

OVERALL VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves and finally ended the day with a gain of 155.30 points. After trying for few days today it moved ahead a bit and closed above few critical point of 49940.14 & 49974.75 but yet to move above the complete range of 50122.13----50153.81 & 50467.77, please note that it has to move above the said range completely and sustain on the closing basis for the continuation of the up move and this should happen in the next 2-3 trading sessions, else this rally may fizzle out and will start to drift down. Furthermore despite the recent rise some important technical indicators on the daily, weekly and monthly chart are still negative, which indicates that it may fall in coming days/weeks. It is important to mention here that it moved in a short range during the just concluded week, therefore it seems that it may be bracing for big move on the either side in the next week, so watch out.  However even if it moves down but as long as it holds the range of 49683---49561---49528---49375---49195---49082(figures will change every day) the chance of the up move will be alive but break below this range could be a warning sign for down move to start and finally sustained break below the range of 48636.45---48292.25 &48203.45 will trigger fresh fall and it could be moderate to sharp in the intensity. Since it is still in corrective mode therefore it is sell on the rise market now in general, but long trade can also be attempted on decline at crucial and critical support point with strict stop losses for pullback gains.

NOTE: - BREAK BELOW 49846.70--49705.75 & 49530.45 ON THE CLOSING BASIS CAN TRIGGER FALL. SIMILARLY CLOSE ABOVE 50252.95 CAN CONTINUE THE UP MOVE.

 STRENGTH:-

1. It is in the long term uptrend; but break below 47574(figure will change every day) will threaten the long term uptrend.

2. It is well above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.

3. It is well above its pullback threshold point of 47271(figure may change), and if it sustains above it then the possible broad upside target points could be at 50122.13----50153.81---50467.77. Please note that if it moves above 50122.13 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 51133.20 or may go beyond it.

4. It is above all its short & medium  term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, and the important range is between 49683---49561---49528---49375---49195---49082(figure will change every day), sustained break below this range can trigger down move again.

5. Two out of five important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart.

6. It has made higher top & bottom on the line chart recently.

WEAKNESS:-

1. It is into deep correction mode for its earlier and its recent rise and it will get out of all corrective modes once it moves above 50153.81 &50467.77 and sustain on the closing basis.

2. Some important technical indicators are weak on the daily/weekly and monthly charts and pointing that it could head down to lower levels in coming days/weeks and months.

3. Volatility can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

4. The price action was weak today.

TRADING CALL: --                                                                   

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 49850---49706 with a stop loss of 49500 for pullback gains, else avoid trade for the day.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 50375---50425 with a stop loss of 50550 or can sell below 49670 or 49500 with a stop loss of 49920 & 49760. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.