A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—1.7.2024

 

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CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—52874.95--High—53030.30--Low—52242.30---Close—52342.25 on 28.6.2024.

Support: 52218/51969/51823/51470/51133.20/50889.65/50467.77/50153.81/50122.13/49974.75/49688.85/49202/49057.40/48636.45/48381.95/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45.                           

Resistance: 52508/52966/53064/53180.75/53281/54257/54604/54815.

OVERALL VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 469.05 points. It is exhibiting good strength but the recent vertical rise and volatility is a concern and it could prove to be a dampener in the coming days, which please keep in mind and the last two days may be a teaser of that. The up move can continue provided it holds its first key support range of 52698.87----52319.28---52032.10 & 51957 (figures may change) on the closing basis, but today it slipped into short correction for its recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 52698.87, which is weak sign, break below 52319.28 & 52032.10 will weaken it further and sustained break below 51957 will be a warning sign and may trigger fresh fall. However even if it breaks the above mentioned points, but moving down as long as it holds the range of 51806----51761----51718.14----51303---50928----51504.47-----51115.34----50594(figures may change) the chance of the up move will be alive but break below this range could be a deep warning sign for a big down move to start and finally sustained break below the range of 48636.45---48292.25 &48203.45 will trigger fresh fall and that could be moderate to sharp in the intensity. It is important to mention here that despite the recent rise some important technical indicators on the daily, weekly and monthly chart are still weak and showing overbought condition also, which indicates that it may deeply correct in the coming days/weeks, but please note that as long as price action remains good there is no major threat for it to move down and the price action has been more or less consistently o.k. recently but it was weak today. In light of vertical rise, some weak indicators, overbought condition and volatility, it is suggested to trade the market with extreme caution and alert because it may fall in an accelerated pace in coming days. Since it gotten into correction mode today it is sell on the rise market till it get out of the corrective mode, but long trade can also be attempted on decline at appropriate support points for intraday gains.

NOTE: - TO KEEP THE UP MOMENTUM GOING IN THE MONTH OF JULY-2024 IT HAS TO MOVE ABOVE 53180.75 AND SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS, ELSE IT MAY MOVE SIDE WAYS OR DRIFT DOWN.  SIMILARLY SUSTAINED BREAK BELOW THE RANGE OF 52698.87----52319.28---52032.10 & 51957   MAY TRIGGER FRESH FALL.   

  STRENGTH:-

1. It is in the long term uptrend.

2. It is well above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.

3. It is in the new zone.

4. It is above all its short, medium and long term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, and the important range for now is between 52194----51806----51761----51303---50928---50594(figure will change every day), sustained break below this range can trigger down move again.

5. Four out of seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart.

6. It still has higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart.

WEAKNESS:-

1. The price action was positive today.

2. It slipped into correction mode today as it closed below its threshold point of 52698.87. The other important correction threshold points are at 52319.28----52032.10---51718.14---51504.47---51115.34(figures may change). Please note that break below each point will make the correction deeper.                                                            

3. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

4. Volatility can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 52145—52000 with a stop loss of 51900, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 52780---52850 with a stop loss of 53050 or can sell below 51900 with a stop loss of 52160. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.