A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—25.1.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-21185.25--High—21482.35—Low—21137.20--Close-21453.95 on 24.1.2024.

Support: 21448.65/ 21337.75/21285.55/ 21037.90/20976.80/20769.50/20291.55/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19839/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance: 21492/21500.35/21593/21680/21727.75/21731.40/21763.95/21801.45/21834.35/21906/21931/21974/21982/ 22027/22073/22124/22220/22459/22478/22590/23082/23124/23587.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with a minor down gap and then had both side moves during the day and in the process filled the days gap also and finally ended the day with a gain of 215.15 points. Please note that it is exhibiting huge volatility which is not good for a steady and smooth movement and may eventually drag it down lower. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday, which please note.

The technical setup is weak and it is well below its most critical & important points of 21801.45---21731.40 & 21727.75 and to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024 it has to sustain above these points on the closing basis else it may head down. Furthermore now it is into very short, short, deep short and medium term correction mode as it close below its threshold point of 21964.73---21853.38---21804.45 & 21568.23 (figure may change) please note that break below 21348.58 & 20874.34(figure may change) will push it into long and deep long term correction mode and sustained break below 20222.45 could be an extreme alert point and then correction may further deepen and can last longer. It is into medium term correction mode now but the long term uptrend is still intact as of now. It is important to mention here that its short & long pullback threshold points are at 21282 & 21370.12(figure may change) and the good thing is that it closed above both these points today and as long as it holds these points on the closing basis there could be a possibility that it could give a meaningful up move and the hope of continuation of the up move will be alive, else correction may continue with very short relief rallies. 

It is very important to mention here that all the five important technical indicators are negative now on the daily chart and indicates that it could drag it down to much lower levels in coming days and it has already been moving down, furthermore chart setup has turned weak as it is making lower top & bottom, it is  below all its short term moving averages and below some medium term moving averages also and the price action has been constantly weak, all together situation is concerning and further fall from here looks inevitable. But since, it closed above its pullback threshold points of 21282 & 21370.12 chance of up is alive as long as it holds these points. In view of the overall observation it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy or sell on the price breakdown till visible sign of correction completion emerges. However long trade can also be tried at the most critical support points with strict short stop losses for pullback gains, but it could be a risky affair mind you.

Moving up from here it may face strong resistance at 21516---21593---21630---21727.75----21731.40----21747.16----21801.45---21834.45---21891.23---21926.76---22124.15---22220----22459---22478(figure may change) and it can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or it may exhaust the up move at any of these points also and may head down. 

Similarly moving down from here its important support points could be at 21448---21370.12---21282---21248---21206---21137.20----21089---21040----20976.80----20946.35---20868.78---20769.50---20668----20324----20240(figures may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again but break sustained break below  20976.80 & 20769.50 may accelerate the fall. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- IT IS INTO MEDIUM CORRECTIVE MODE BUT CLOSED ABOVE PULLBACK THRESHOLD POINTS OF 21282 & 21370.12 AND IF IT HOLD THESE POINTS THEN IT MAY HAVE GOOD UP MOVE, ELSE CORRECTION MAY CONTINUE.  

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 21370---21290 with a stop loss of 21230 or if it move above 21485 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 21430. But aggressive traders can also try long trade on sharp decline near 21040 with a stop loss of 20960.  Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback gains.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair, but it is into medium term corrective mode, therefore short trade can also be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 21650--- 21700 with a stop loss of 21750 or sell below 21230 with a stop loss of 21300. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com