CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—45492.75--High—46184.05--Low—45430.70---Close—45713.55
on 18.1.2024.
Support:45655.50/45622/45281/45239/45118.05/44949.90/44710.55/.44547.80/44279.40/44151.80/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:46310.10/46369.50/46507.15/46886.90/46919.70/47010.80/47411.65/47481.35/47588/48166.15/48203.45/48219.95/48292.25/48381.95 48636.45/48722/48925/49024/49567.60/49696/49857/50324/50633.60/50850.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It opened with a huge down gap for the 2nd
day in a row but filled the today’s gap during the day and finally ended the
day with a loss of 350.90 points. Please
note that the gap it created on 17.1.2024 is still there and if it makes
an effort to fill the gap in next 3-4 trading session, which is
technically possible then it can come up to 48002.85, but if it fails to
fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will
recede for the time being. It is important to mention here that the gap filling
threat for the earlier gap on the weekly chart has faded out, but please note
that eventually it will fill the gap someday, which please note.
It is important to mention here that its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25
& 48636.45and to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2024 it has to
sustain above these points on the closing basis else it may head down. It is way below all the three critical points,
it has decisively breached all the correction threshold points and most
critical points of 48231.30---48133.94---47999.87---47360.75---47095.12
& 46369.50(figures may change), which is a hugely negative sign and
indicates further fall ahead please note that if it fails to move above 46369.50
and sustain on the closing basis then the correction will deepen further
and may last longer. It is into long term correction mode now for its recent
months rise, but the long term trend is still up as of now. It is important
to mention here that its short and long pullback threshold points are at 46109.13
& 46187.26(figure may change) and if it moves above these points and
sustain on the closing basis then it could give a meaningful up move and hope
of the continuation of the up move will be alive, else correction may continue with
very short relief rallies.
It is very important to mention here that all
the five important technical indicators are
negative now on the daily chart and indicates that it could drag it down
to much lower levels in the coming days,
one of the most important indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is
also negative and it is already into the corrective mode, it is still making lower top & bottom on the line and bar
chart, furthermore the short term chart setup has weakened as it has broken all
its recent key bottoms, fallen below all its short term and few medium term
moving averages and most importantly it has tested its long term moving average
after a long time and price action is also terribly weak, therefore all
together the situation is highly concerning and further fall looks inevitable,
therefore please note that if it fails to stage a sharp recovery in a shortest
possible time and moves above some of the key points as mentioned above and
sustains then the fall is likely to continue. In view of the overall
observation it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy or sell on the
price breakdown till visible sign of correction completion emerges. However
long trade can also be tried at the most critical support points with strict short
stop losses for pullback gains, but it could be a risky affair mind you.
Moving down from here its important support
points could be at 45655.50---45484---44949.50---44710.55---44547.80---44279.40---43830.25---43796.75---43600.35(figures
may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points
and may resume the up move again, else may keep moving down.
Similarly moving up it may face strong
resistance at 46109.13---4687.26---46369.50----46529----46555---46868---46886.90---46919.70---47010.80----47034---47207---47360.75---47411.85---47481.35---47588---47627---47730---47880---47995.30--47999.87----48105.08---48133.94---48203.45---48219.95---48231.30----48252.80---48292.25---48311.32----48381.95----48636.45(figure may change) and it can correct at any of these points and
then may resume the up move again or it may exhaust the up move at any of these
points also and may head down. But please note that if it moves above 47995.30
and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 48636.45
or may go beyond it also.
IMPORTANT NOTE: -- THE CORRECTION
IS DEEPENING AND IF IT DOES NOT BOUNCE BACK ABOVE THE PULLBACK THRESHOLD POINT
OF 46109.13 & 46187.26 AND SUSTAIN THEN THE DOWN MOVE MAY CONTINUE. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO MENTION HERE THAT TODAY IT HAS TESTED ITS LONG TERM MOVING AVERAGE,
THEREFORE PLEASE NOTE THAT SUSTAINED BREAK BELOW 45470(FIGURE WILL CHANGE EVERY DAY) WILL THREATEN THE LONG UPTREND AND
SUSTAINED BREAK BELOW 44293(FIGURE WILL CHANGE EVERYDAY) WILL PUT THE LONG
TERM UPTREND IN POTENTIAL DANGER, WHICH PLEASE NOTE
TRADING TIPS:--
1. Safe traders can try long trade only if it
closes above its pullback threshold point of 46187.26 and sustain, avoid
long trade on decline for the time being. But aggressive traders can try long
trade on decline near 45470 with a stop loss of 44370. Please
note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be
tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback
gains.
2. It is in
the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky
affair, but it has slipped into long deep corrective mode, therefore short trade
can also be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday
corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried
on the rise near or within the range of 46180---46280 with a stop loss
of 46380 or sell below 45430 with a stop loss of 45550. It
could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling
point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade
should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed
here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for
the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
.
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