A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—16.1.2024

 

 

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 CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—47891.05--High—48248.05--Low—47825.40---Close—48158.30 on 15.1.2024.

Support:47588/47481.35/ 47411.65/47010.80/46919.70/46886.90/46507.15/46369.50/46310.10/45655.50/45622/45281---45239/45118.05/44949.90/44710.55/.44547.80/44279.40/44151.80/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.

Resistance: 48166.15/48203.45/48219.95/48292.25/48381.95 48636.45.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with an up gap and had both side moves and it filled the gap during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 448.50 points. It is exhibiting some strength but  volatility also, which is not a good sign for a steady market. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat on the daily and weekly chart has faded out for now but please note that eventually it will fill the gap, which please note.

 It is important to mention here that its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45and to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2024 it has to sustain above these points on the closing basis else it may head down.  It is still below all the three critical points now, it is already into very short term correction mode for its earlier rise as it is below its threshold point of 48231.30 & (figure may change). Please note that break below each points 48133.9---47919.31---47360.75 & 47095.12(figure may change) will deepen the corrective mode and finally break below 46369.50 could be an extreme alert point and then correction may further deepen and fall may accelerate and  then it can last longer. It is in correction now but the long term trend is still up as of now. The good point is that it is above its short and long pullback threshold points of 47334.39 & 47394.45(figure may change) and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then it could give a meaningful up move and hope of the continuation of the up move will be alive, else correction may continue with very short relief rallies. 

It is very important to mention here that four out of five important technical indicators are  negative now on the daily chart and indicates that it could drag it down lower levels in the coming days,  one of the most important indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is also negative and it is already into the corrective mode, furthermore short term chart setup is still weak as it still has  lower top & bottom on the line and bar chart, but the positive point is that it is above its all short term moving averages and the price action is also positive therefore if it sustain above the moving averages and price action remains positive then it may continue the up move. Please note that if it fails to stage a sharp recovery in a shortest possible time and moves above some of the critical &important points as mentioned above and sustains then the correction is likely to continue. In view of the overall observation it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy or sell on the price breakdown till it gives visible sign of correction completion or continuation of the up move. However long trade can also be tried at the most critical support points with strict stop losses for intraday gains. 

Moving down from here its important support points could be at 48015.45----47980---47956---47919.31----47824---47775---47629----47575----47483---47394.45---47334.39--47303--47263---47258---47010.80---46919.70---46886.90---46507.15(figures may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again, but break below 47010.80 may trigger fresh fall and sustained break below 46919.70---46886.90 & 46507.15 may accelerate the fall. 

Similarly moving up it may face strong resistance at 48133.94---48203.45---48219.95---28231.30----48252.80---48292.25---48311.32----48381.95----48636.45(figure may change) and it can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or it may exhaust the up move at any of these points also and may head down. But please note that if it moves above 48311.32 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 48636.45 or may go beyond it also.

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- IT IS STILL BELOW THE CRITICAL POINTS OF  48203.45----48292.25--- &48636.45, FURTHERMORE IMPORTANT TECHNICAL INDICATORS ARE ALSO NEGATIVE, THEREFORE DANGER OF GOING DOWN IS STILL THERE TILL IT MOVES ABOVE THE CRITICAL POINTS AND SUSTAIN OR TECHNICAL INDICATORS IMPROVES.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 47850----47750 with a stop loss of 47550 or if it holds 48154.50 for some time with a stop loss of 48000. Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at critical support points with strict stop loss.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair, but it is already into very short  correction mode for its earlier rise, therefore short trade can also be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 48500---48580 with a stop loss of 48700 . It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

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