CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—48096.65--High—48154.50--Low—47387.35--Close—47450.25on
8.1.2024.
Support: 47420/47231/47123/46919.70/46886.90/46850/46484.45/46369.50/46310.40/45905.85/45893.80/45816/45782.75/45655.50/45238.80/45118.05/44949.90/44779.65/44710.55/.43600.35/44547.80/44498.60/44279.40/44151.80/43830.75/43796.75/43345.95/43230.95/43078.90/43038.25/42986.45
Resistance: 47454/47575/47808/47856/47918/47998/48021/48081/48166.15/81/48166.15/48203.45/48220/48292.25/48478/ 48502/48574/48636.45/48722/48925/49024/49567.60/49696/49857/50324/50633.60/50850.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It opened on a negative note and moved up
little further then stated moving down steadily and finally ended the day with
a loss of 708.75 points. It
is important to mention here that for the earlier gaps, the gap filling threat
on the daily chart had faded out but it is still looming on the weekly chart (gap
point 44951.10), and there is a fair chance that it may try to fill this
gap in the week starting from 8.1.2024 else chance of filling the gap
may recede for a while but eventually it will fill the gap, which please note,
so be alert, cautious and watchful.
It is important to mention here that its critical points are 48636.45---48292.25
& 48203.45 and to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2024 it has to
sustain above these points on the closing basis else it may head down. It is way below all the three critical points,
it was already into very short correction mode and today it slipped into deep
short correction mode also for its recent rise as it is below its threshold
point of 48231.30 &48133.94. Please note that break below 47360.75
& 47095.12(figure may change) will push it into medium and long term
correction mode for its recent rise and break below 46369.50 could be an
extreme alert point and then correction may further deepen and can last longer.
It is in correction now but the long term trend is still up as of now. Kindly
note that its pullback threshold point is at 47682.14(figure may change) and if
it moves above it and sustain on the closing basis then it could give a
meaningful up move, else correction may continue.
It is very important to mention here that
three out of five important technical indicators are still negative on the
daily chart and indicates that it could drag it down 46900 or lower in
coming days, one of the most important
indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is also negative and it is in the
corrective mode, furthermore short term chart setup has weakened a bit as it
has made lower top & bottom on the line and bar chart, is has fallen below
some of its short term moving averages and price action is also weak, therefore
all together it is highly concerning. Please note that if it fails to stage a
sharp recovery in a shortest possible time and moves above important points as
mentioned above then the correction will deepen. In view of overall observation
it is suggested to defer buy on decline strategy for a while because chances of
it going down further is very much likely in coming days at this point of time,
but buy trade can be tried at the
critical and most important support points with proper stop losses. It is
suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy or sell on the price breakdown
till it gives visible sign of correction completion or continuation of the up
move.
Moving down from here its important support
points could be at 47411.65---47324----47263---46919.70---46886.90---46507.15(figures
may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points
and may resume the up move again, please note that it has already closed below the
fresh fall trigger point of 47481.35 which is a weak sign and sustained
break below 46919.70---46886.90 & 46507.15 may accelerate the fall.
Similarly moving up it may face strong
resistance at 47481.35----47575----47682.14---47865---48012----48133.94---48159---48203.45---48219.95---48292.25---48342----48381.95----48387--48636.45(figure may change) and it can correct at any of these points and
then may resume the up move again or it may exhaust the up move at any of these
points also and may head down. But please note that if it moves above 48387
and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 48636.45
or may go beyond it also.
IMPORTANT NOTE: -- IT IS
STILL BELOW THE CRITICAL POINTS OF 48203.45----48292.25--- &48636.45, FURTHERMORE
IMPORTANT TECHNICAL INDICATORS ARE ALSO NEGATIVE, THEREFORE DANGER OF GOING
DOWN IS STILL THERE TILL IT MOVES ABOVE THE CRITICAL POINTS AND SUSTAIN OR
TECHNICAL INDICATORS IMPROVES AND IT WENT DOWN SHARPLY TODAY AND FURTHER FALL IS
NOT RULED OUT.
TRADING TIPS:--
1. For safe traders long trade can be tried if
it at least closes above it pullback threshold point of 47682.14 avoid
buy on decline for the day. But aggressive traders can also try long trade on
sharp decline near or within the range of 47000---46900 with a stop loss
of 46800. Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky
affair but can be tried at critical support points with strict stop loss.
2. It is in
the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky
affair, but it is already into very short and deep short correction mode for
its recent rise, therefore short trade can also be attempted on reasonable rise
or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution
and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 47800---47900
with a stop loss of 48060 or sell if it remains below 47481.35 for
some time with a stop loss of 47650. It could be a risky
trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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