A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—10.1.2024

 

 

2

2

2

2

 CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—47705.40--High—47939.30--Low—47156.05--Close—47242.65 on 9.1.2024.

Support: 46919.70/46886.90/46507.15/46369.50/46310.10/45655.50/45622/45281---45239/45118.05/44949.90/44710.55/.44547.80/44279.40/44151.80/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.

Resistance: 47411.65/47481.35/47588/48166.15/48203.45/48219.95/48292.25/48381.95 48636.45.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

After yesterdays huge fall it opened on a positive note and had both side moves during the day but finally ended the day with a loss of 207.60 points, which indicates gross weakness. It is exhibiting huge volatility also, which is not a good sign for a steady market.  It is important to mention here that for the earlier gaps, the gap filling threat on the daily chart had faded out but it is still looming on the weekly chart (gap point 44951.10), and there is a fair chance that it may try to fill this gap in the week starting from 8.1.2024 else chance of filling the gap may recede for a while but eventually it will fill the gap, which please note, so be alert, cautious and watchful.

 It is important to mention here that its critical points are 48636.45---48292.25 & 48203.45 and to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2024 it has to sustain above these points on the closing basis else it may head down.  It is way below all the three critical points, it is already into very short & deep short  correction mode and today it slipped into medium term correction mode also for its recent rise as it is below its threshold point of 48231.30---48133.94 &47360.75(figure may change)  . Please note that break below  47095.12(figure may change) will push it into  long term correction mode for its recent rise and break below 46369.50 could be an extreme alert point and then correction may further deepen and can last longer. It is in correction now but the long term trend is still up as of now. Kindly note that its pullback threshold point is at 47505.42(figure may change) and if it moves above it and sustain on the closing basis then it could give a meaningful up move, else correction may continue. 

It is very important to mention here that four out of five important technical indicators are  negative now on the daily chart and indicates that it could drag it down 46900 or much lower in coming days,  one of the most important indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is also negative and it is already in the corrective mode, furthermore short term chart setup has weakened  as it is making lower top & bottom on the line and bar chart, it is below  its short term moving averages and price action is also weak, therefore all together it is highly concerning. Please note that if it fails to stage a sharp recovery in a shortest possible time and moves above important points as mentioned above and sustains then the correction will deepen. In view of overall observation it is suggested to defer buy on decline strategy for a while because chances of it going down further is very much likely in coming days at this point of time, but  buy trade can be tried at the critical and most important support points with proper stop losses. It is suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy or sell on the price breakdown till it gives visible sign of correction completion or continuation of the up move. 

Moving down from here its important support points could be at 46919.70---46886.90---46507.15(figures may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again, please note that it has already closed below the fresh fall trigger point of 47481.35 which is a weak sign and sustained break below 46919.70---46886.90 & 46507.15 may accelerate the fall. 

Similarly moving up it may face strong resistance at 47263---47324---47505.42----47575----47722---47778---47896---47980---48071----48133.94---48159---48203.45---48219.95---48231.30---48292.25---48340.37----48381.95----48387--48636.45(figure may change) and it can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or it may exhaust the up move at any of these points also and may head down. But please note that if it moves above 48340.37 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 48636.45 or may go beyond it also.

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- IT IS STILL BELOW THE CRITICAL POINTS OF  48203.45----48292.25--- &48636.45, FURTHERMORE IMPORTANT TECHNICAL INDICATORS ARE ALSO NEGATIVE, THEREFORE DANGER OF GOING DOWN IS STILL THERE TILL IT MOVES ABOVE THE CRITICAL POINTS AND SUSTAIN OR TECHNICAL INDICATORS IMPROVES, FURTHER FALL  LOOKS QUITE IMMINENT IN THE COMING DAYS AS OF NOW.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. For safe traders long trade can be tried if it at least closes above it pullback threshold point of 47505.42 avoid buy on decline for the day. But aggressive traders can also try long trade on sharp decline near or within the range of 46950---46880 with a stop loss of 46700. Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at critical support points with strict stop loss.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair, but it is already into very short and deep short correction mode for its recent rise, therefore short trade can also be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 47725---47825 with a stop loss of 47980 or sell near it if it remains below 47481.35 for some time with a stop loss of 47650. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

2

  

.

2

.

2

 

2

2