A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—4.1.2024

 

 

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 CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—47796.30--High—47798.75--Low—47481.35--Close—47704.95 on 3.1.2024.

Support: 47575/47454/47420/47231/47123/46919.70/46886.90/46850/46484.45/46369.50/46310.40/45905.85/45893.80/45816/45782.75/45655.50/45238.80/45118.05/44949.90/44779.65/44710.55/.43600.35/44547.80/44498.60/44279.40/44151.80/43830.75/43796.75/43345.95/43230.95/43078.90/43038.25/42986.45

Resistance: 47808/47856/47918/47998/48021/48081/48166.15/48203.45/48220/48292.25/48478/ 48502/48574/48636.45/48722/48925/49024/49567.60/49696/49857/50324/50633.60/50850.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a positive note and then immediately started slipping down and hit a low of 47481.35 and then recovered well but finally ended the day with a loss of 56.70 points. It is important to mention here that for the earlier gaps, the gap filling threat on the daily chart had faded out but it is still looming on the weekly chart (gap point 44951.10), and there is a fair chance that it may try to fill this gap either next week starting from 1.1.2024 or week after that, so be alert, cautious and watchful.

The overall technical setup is still o.k. but is has been moving down for the last four days. Please note that its critical points are 48636.45---48292.25 & 48203.45 and to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2024 it has to sustain above these points on the closing basis else it may trigger correction. It is way below all the three critical points, furthermore it is already into very short and deep short correction mode for its recent rise as it is below its threshold point of 48231.30 &48133.94, all together the situation is concerning  Please note that  break below 47360.75 & 47095.12(figure may change) will push it into  medium and long correction mode for its recent rise and break below 46369.50 could be an extreme alert point and then correction may further deepen and can last longer It is in the long term uptrend as of now, but it is suggested to defer buy on decline strategy for a while and watch how the on-going correction culminates. However if it closes above 47754(figure may change) and sustain then there is some hope that it could stage a meaningful pullback, else correction may continue with in between relief rallies,.

It is very important to mention here that three out of five important technical indicators are still negative on the daily chart and indicates that it could drag it down 46900 or lower in coming days, furthermore one most important indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is also negative and to top it all it is below some of its short term moving averages after a long time and price action is also weak for the last four days, therefore all together it is highly concerning, therefore correction may deepen and moving down its important support points could be at 47575---47411.65---47324----47263---46919.70---46886.90---46507.15(figures may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again but break sustained break below 46919.70---46886.90 & 46507.15 may accelerate the fall. Similarly moving up it may face strong resistance at 47754---47754---47923---48059---48133.94---48195---48203.45---48219.95---48292.25---48364----48405--48636.45---48717---49024---49568---49696(figure may change) and the up move can take a breather at any of these points and may resume the up move again or may exhaust at any of these points also. So be watchful.

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- AS ENVISAGED IT SLIPPED INTO CORRECTION MODE ON 2.1.2024 AND IMPORTANT INDICATORS POINTING THAT IF IT DOES NOT STAGE A SHARP BOUNCE BACK IN A SHORTEST POSSIBLE TIME AND MOVES ABOVE ITS CRITICAL POINTS AS MENTIONED ABOVE THEN IT IS LIKELY TO  SLIP DOWN TO 46900 OR LOWER, SO WATCH OUT.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. For safe traders long trade can be tried if it closes above 48292.25 or at least above 47754 and sustain, avoid buy on decline for the day. But aggressive traders can also try long trade if it moves above 47800 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 47650 or on decline near 47400 with a stop loss of 47300 or on sharp decline near or within the range of 47100----46950 with a stop loss of 46800. Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at critical support points.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair, but it is into very short and deep short correction mode today, therefore short trade can also be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 47950---48050 with a stop loss of 48150 or sell if it moves below 47615 with a stop loss of 47760. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

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