CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—47538.60--High—47662.10--Low—47237--Close—47438.35
on 11.1.2024.
Support: 47411.65/46919.70/46886.90/46507.15/46369.50/46310.10/45655.50/45622/45281---45239/45118.05/44949.90/44710.55/.44547.80/44279.40/44151.80/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance: 47481.35/47588/48166.15/48203.45/48219.95/48292.25/48381.95 48636.45.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It opened with an up gap and went up further
but then slipped down and filled the gap also and finally ended the day with a gain/loss
of 77.50 points. It is exhibiting huge volatility also,
which is not a good sign for a steady market. It is important to mention here that for the
earlier gaps, the gap filling threat on the daily chart had faded out but it is
still looming on the weekly chart (gap point 44951.10), and there is a
fair chance that it may try to fill this gap in the week starting from 8.1.2024
else chance of filling the gap may recede for a while but eventually it
will fill the gap, which please note, so be alert, cautious and watchful.
It is important to mention here that its critical points are 48636.45---48292.25
& 48203.45 and to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2024 it has to
sustain above these points on the closing basis else it may head down. It is way below all the three critical points,
it is already into very short & deep short term correction mode for its
recent rise as it is below its threshold point of 48231.30 & 48133.94 (figure may change) . Please note that break below 47360.75
& 47095.12(figure may change) will push it into medium and long term
correction mode for its recent rise and break below 46369.50 could be an
extreme alert point and then correction may further deepen and can last longer.
It is in correction now but the long term trend is still up as of now. The good
point now is that it closed above its short and long pullback threshold
points of 47334.39 & 47394.45(figure may change) and if it sustains above
it on the closing basis then it could give a meaningful up move, else
correction may continue with very short relief rallies.
It is very important to mention here that four
out of five important technical indicators are
negative now on the daily chart and indicates that it could drag it down
46900 or much lower in coming days,
one of the most important indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is
also negative and it is already into the corrective mode, furthermore short
term chart setup has weakened as it is
making lower top & bottom on the line and bar chart, it is below all its
short term moving averages and price action is also inconsistent and weak most
of the time recently, therefore all together it is highly concerning. Please
note that if it fails to stage a sharp recovery in a shortest possible time and
moves above some critical &important points as mentioned above and sustains
then the correction will deepen. In view of the overall observation it is
suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy or sell on the price breakdown
till it gives visible sign of correction completion or continuation of the up
move. However long trade can also be tried at the most critical support points with
strict stop losses for intraday gains.
Moving down from here its important support
points could be at 47394.45---47334.39--47324---47263---47010.80---46919.70---46886.90---46507.15(figures
may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points
and may resume the up move again, please note that it has already below the
fresh fall trigger point of 47481.35 which is a weak sign and sustained
break below 46919.70---46886.90 & 46507.15 may accelerate the fall.
Similarly moving up it may face strong
resistance at 47575----47632----47778---47824---47980---48015.45----48133.94---48203.45---48219.95---48252.80---48292.25---48311.32----48381.95----48636.45(figure may change) and it can correct at any of these points and
then may resume the up move again or it may exhaust the up move at any of these
points also and may head down. But please note that if it moves above 48311.32
and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 48636.45
or may go beyond it also.
IMPORTANT NOTE: -- IT IS
STILL BELOW THE CRITICAL POINTS OF 48203.45----48292.25--- &48636.45, FURTHERMORE
IMPORTANT TECHNICAL INDICATORS ARE ALSO NEGATIVE, THEREFORE DANGER OF GOING
DOWN IS STILL THERE TILL IT MOVES ABOVE THE CRITICAL POINTS AND SUSTAIN OR
TECHNICAL INDICATORS IMPROVES, FURTHER FALL
LOOKS QUITE IMMINENT IN THE COMING DAYS AS OF NOW.
TRADING TIPS:--
1. For safe traders long trade can be tried if it
holds the range of 47394.45----47334.39 for some time with a stop loss
of 47230 avoid buy on decline for the day. But aggressive traders can
also try long trade on sharp decline near or within the range of 46950---46880
with a stop loss of 46700. Please note that long trade in corrective
mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at critical support points with
strict stop loss.
2. It is in
the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky
affair, but it is already into very short and deep short correction mode for
its recent rise, therefore short trade can also be attempted on reasonable rise
or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution
and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 47700---47750
with a stop loss of 47850 or sell below 47230 with a stop
loss of 47450. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday
corrective gains
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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