CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—46495.45--High—46580.30--Low—44886.10---Close—45015.05
on 23.1.2024.
Support: 44949.90/44710.55/.44547.80/44279.40/44151.80/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance: 45118.05/45239/45281/45622/45655.50/46310.10/46369.50/46507.15/46886.90/46919.70/47010.80/47411.65/47481.35/47588/48166.15/48203.45/48219.95/48292.25/48381.95 48636.45/48722/48925/49024/49567.60/49696/49857/50324/50633.60/50850.
(Bold and underlined figures
are most important)
It opened with an up gap today and went up
little further but could not sustain and plunged down sharply and filled
today’s gap during the day and finally ended the day with a whopping loss of 1043.15 points. Please note that chance of filling the gap
of 48002.85 which it created on 17.1.2024 has faded out for the
time being, but eventually it will fill the gap someday, which please note,
furthermore it has filled the earlier weekly gap of 44951.10 today.
It is important to mention here that
its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45and
to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2024 it has to sustain above these
points on the closing basis else it may head down. It is way
below all the three critical points, it has decisively breached all the important
correction threshold points for its recent months rise and most critical points
48231.30---48133.94---47999.87---47447.93---47387.89---47360.75---47095.12----46369.50----46270.95(figures
may change), which is a hugely negative sign and indicates further fall
ahead. Please note that break below 44746.91(figure may change) will
push it into deep medium term correction mode for its earlier rise. It is into
long term correction mode now for its recent months rise, and most importantly
long term uptrend is also threatened as it decisively closed below its long term
moving average upper band of the range which is at 45515(figure will change
every day) and this is highly concerning and if it breaks the lower band of
the range which is at 44324(figure will change every day) then the long
term uptrend will be in potential danger. It is important to mention here
that its short and long pullback threshold points are at 45693.05 & 45771.18(figure
may change) and if it moves above 45693.05 then it may give a feeble up move
but if it moves above 45771.18 and sustains on the closing basis then it could give
a meaningful up move and the hope of continuation of the up move will be alive,
else correction may continue with very short relief rallies.
It is very important to mention here that all
the five important technical indicators are
negative now on the daily chart and indicates that it could drag it down
to much lower levels in the coming days and this is what is happening, one of the most important indicator on the
weekly & monthly chart is also negative and it is into long term corrective
mode. Furthermore the chart setup has weakened as it has broken all its recent
key bottoms and making lower tops & bottoms, fallen below all its short
term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, below some medium term
moving averages and most importantly below some long term moving averages also and
price action is also terribly weak, therefore all together the situation is
highly concerning and further fall from here looks inevitable. In view of the
overall observation it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise strategy or sell
on the price breakdown till visible sign of correction completion emerges.
However long trade can also be tried at the most critical support points with
strict short stop losses for pullback gains, but it could be a risky affair
mind you.
Moving down from here its important support
points could be at 44949.50---44807---44746.91---44600----44506---44404----44312---44279.40---43830.25---43796.75---43600.35(figures
may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points
and may resume the up move again, else may keep moving down.
Similarly moving up it may face strong
resistance at 45693.05---45771.18---46192---46319---46596---46762---47000---47204---47499---47622----47751---47886.38---48203.45---48219.95---48231.30----48252.80---48292.25---48305.40---48381.95----48636.45(figure may change) and it can correct at any of these points and
then may resume the up move again or it may exhaust the up move at any of these
points also and may head down.
IMPORTANT NOTE: -- ITS
LONG TERM AVERAGE RANGE IS 45515---44324(FIGURE WILL CHANGE EVERY DAY) IT HAS DECIESIVELY
CLOSED BELOW ITS UPPER BAND OF THE RANGE TODAY WHICH IS HIGHLY CONCERNIN AND
BREAK BELOW 44324 WILL PUT THE LONG TERM UPTREND IN THE POTENTIAL DANGER.
PLEASE NOTE THAT IF IT DOES NOT BOUNCE BACK ABOVE 45515 & 45771.18 AND
SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN THE DOWN MOVE MAY CONTINUE.
TRADING TIPS:--
1. Safe traders can try long trade only if it
closes above its pullback threshold point of 45771.18 and sustain, avoid
long trade on decline for the time being. But aggressive traders can try long
trade on decline near 44325 with a stop loss of 44160. Please
note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be
tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback
gains.
2. It is in
the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky
affair, but it has slipped into long deep corrective mode, therefore short
trade can also be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for
intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can
be tried on the rise near or within the range of 45650---45750 with a
stop loss of 45850 or sell below 44880 with a stop loss of 45100.
It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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