A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—20.3.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open-17111.80--High—17145.80--Low-16958.15---Close-17100.05 on 10.3.2023.

Support: 17075/17044/17035/16950/16888/16836—833---809/16747.70/16438.75/16410.20.

Resistance:17166---17161/17175/17255.20/17306/17326.10/17342.10/17353.40/17405.55/17421.80/17452.90/17484/17493.55/17529.90/17565/17594/ 17641/ 17680/ 17719.75/ /17761.40/17774.25/17795.55/17812/17916.80/17959.20/17972.20/17992/18016/18105.30/18114.65/18132/18141/18183.75/18210.15/18265.25/18350.95/18442.15/18473.35/18604.45/16696.10/18887.60.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)      

It was majorly on the down-slide during the week but in last two days it moved up, however it ended the week on 17.3.2023 with a loss of 312.85 points, which is a weak sign.

The technical setup and price action is weak but as expected it gave a smart up move today,  it is still into deep corrective mode and well below its long term moving average range which is placed between 17860---17360(figures will change every day) for the day, furthermore it is below its short & medium term moving average on the daily & weekly chart and some are below on the monthly chart also, almost all important technical indicators are  negative on the daily chart except for one key indicator which is still positive, so today’s up move can extend further for a day or two, but most importantly the technical indicators are already negative as of now on the weekly & monthly chart indicating that it could break 16100 levels or can go below it also in coming weeks/months, which is highly concerning. But please note that as long as it holds it critical support range of 16950---16915---16850---16747.70 there is a hope that it could bounce back from this range, it did bounce back from this range today but looking at the weekly & monthly technical indicators signal holding this range seems less likely. Please note that sustained break below 16747.70 on the closing basis may end the long term uptrend for a reasonable length of time and fall may accelerate, so be watchful.

Moving up it will find resistance at 17175---17213---17253---17331---17360------17437---17565---17576---17629(these points could be possible sell point also).   Please note that 17075 & 17331(the figures will be scaled down if it breaks 16850.15) are the short and major pullback trigger points and today it closed above its short pullback trigger point of 17075, so if it sustains above this point then up rally may extend, sustained close above 17175 may indicate that it may be inching towards correction completion and strong, meaningful and lasting pullback up move can only be expected if it moves above 17331 and sustain on the closing basis. But it will gain potential strength for strong up momentum once  it moves above its long term moving average range and sustain on the closing basis.

In view of the above observation the deep  down correction is on therefore it is a sell on the rise market or sell on the price breakdown in general and for the safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade till a visible sign of correction completion emerges. However aggressive traders can try long trade at important and critical support points for the pullback gains. But be alert and extremely cautious in the long trade initiated for pullback gains because it is in deep corrective mode and you are well aware that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly trapping the traders unaware. The bias is hugely bearish as of now.

TRADING VIEW: - Long trade can be tried if it holds 17075 for some time with a stop loss of 16940 or on decline near or within the range of 16850----16747 with a stop loss of 16690 for pullback gains. It is in deep corrective mode therefore long trade could be risky bet which please note. Short trade should be attempted on the rise at appropriate points or on price breakdown.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.