A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—13.3.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open-17443.80--High—17451.50--Low-17324.35---Close-17412.90 on 10.3.2023.

Support: 17405.55/17353.40/17342.10/17326.10/17306/17255.20/17166---17161/16950/16888/16836—833---809/16747.70.

Resistance: 17421.80/17452.90/17484/17493.55/17565/17594/ 17641/ 17680/ 17719.75/ /17761.40/17774.25/17795.55/17812/17916.80/17959.20/17972.20/17992/18016/18105.30/18114.65/18132/18141/18183.75/18210.15/18265.25/18350.95/18442.15/18473.35/18604.45/16696.10/18887.60

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)      

The on-going week ended today i.e. on 10.3.2023 it was a truncated week and for the first 3 days it moved in a range and on the last day of the week it plunged down sharply and closed with a weekly loss of 181.44 points which is a weak sign. It opened with a down gap and went down further, therefore today’s gap still exists and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 3-4 trading session which is technically possible then it can move up to 17574, please note that if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for now. The price action was terribly weak and it has shattered the technical setup. The bias is bearish.

It is into deep corrective mode and still within the range of its long term moving average which is placed between 17875---17338(figures will change every day) for the day, furthermore it is below its short & medium term moving average on the daily & weekly chart and some are below on the monthly chart also, some important technical indicators which were looking positive on the daily chart are now on the verge of turning negative , and most importantly the technical indicators are already negative as of now on the weekly & monthly chart indicating that it could break 17100 levels or can go much below also in coming days, which is highly concerning. Please note that if it does not bounce back sharply in next 3-4 trading session and move above some of its important points mentioned hereunder then fall may accelerate.

Moving down it will find good support at 17353.40---17338---17325---17306---17255.20---17175---16855---16747.70(these points could be possible buying points also), kindly note that the range of 17353---17175 is a very strong support range  for the time being, so there is a possibility that it can bounce back from this range, but sustained break below it could trigger a fresh fall and finally 16747.70 is the very critical and most important support point and sustained break below it on the closing basis may end the long term uptrend for a reasonable length of time and fall may accelerate, so be watchful.

Similarly moving up it will find resistance at 17437---17463---17472---17528---17592---17618---17641---17688---17705---17800---17836---17879---17959---17992---18013---18032---18071---18105.30---18132(these points could be possible sell point also).   Please note that 17437( this figure will be scaled down if it breaks 17324.35) & 17641( this figure will be scaled down if it breaks 17255.20) are short and major pullback trigger point and  sustained close above 17437 may give a feeble up move but  sustained move above 17641 on the closing basis may have strong, meaningful and lasting up move. But as you are well aware that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly, so it can end at any of above points or earlier also, therefore be alert and cautious in the long trade. It is important to mention here that it will gain good strength if it moves above its long term moving average range and sustain but it has to move above 18132 and sustain on the closing basis to put it back on the strong up track mode, which may please be noted.

In view of the above observation the deep  down correction is on therefore it is a sell on the rise market or sell on the price breakdown in general and for the safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade till a visible sign of correction completion emerges. However aggressive traders can try long trade at important and critical support points for the pullback gains. But be alert and extremely cautious in the long trade initiated for pullback gains because it is in deep corrective mode and pullback rally can fizzle out any time. Please do not trade without stop loss.

TRADING VIEW: - Long trade can be tried in the range of 17353---17175 with a stop loss of 17080 for pullback gains. It is in deep corrective mode therefore long trade could be risky bet but worth trying in this range. Short trade should be attempted on the rise at appropriate points or on price breakdown.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.