A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY —27.3.2023

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open-39555.25-High-39767.90-Low-39294.90-Close-39395.35 on 24.3.2023.

Support:- 39335/39258.25/39197.20/38765.85/38613.15/38437.95/38426.65/37950---943/37581.05/37386.35.

Resistance:39419.80/39600.25/39868.85/ 40269/40288.90/40819.15/41095.10/41569.45/41643.90/41671.20/41677.65/41729/41791.95/41829.60/41840.15/41877/41979.10/42078.90/42202.55/42555.15/42622.75/42716.80/42740/42880/42948/42986.45/43038.25/43081/43339.15/43498.05/43515.05/43578.40/43614.65/43853.40/44151.80.          

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)      

It exhibited volatility and hit a high of 40201.60 during the week but eventually ended the week on 24.3.2023 with a loss of 202.75 points over the previous week’s close. The undertone is weak and it is expected to slide down in coming week/months.

The overall technical setup and price action is weak but once a while it surprises with an up move which does not sustain. Please note that it is still into deep corrective mode and today it went below its long term moving average range which is placed between 41276---39475(figures will change every day) for the day, furthermore it is below its short & medium term moving average on the daily & weekly chart and some are below on the monthly chart also, it is well below its major pullback trigger point of 39921, therefore all together these developments are highly concerning. But out of four important technical indicators two key indicators are still positive despite the fall, furthermore it is still holding on to its short pullback trigger point of 39335 therefore it gives a glimmer of hope that it could still move up. It is most important to mention here that the technical indicators are already negative as of now on the weekly & monthly chart pointing that it could break 38650 & 36500 levels or can go below it also in coming weeks/months, which is highly concerning. But please note that as long as it holds it critical support range of 39335----38983---38739---38613 there is a hope that it could bounce back from this range, but here I reiterate once again that looking at the weekly & monthly technical indicators signal as of now, it is pointing that holding the above range seems less likely for a longer period of time and will break it eventually, but don’t be extraordinarily bearish till it breaks 38739 & 37386.55 levels and sustain on the closing basis.. Please note that sustained break below 38739 on the closing basis can drag it down to 37386.55 sustained break below it on the closing basis may end the long term uptrend for a reasonable length of time and fall may accelerate. So be alert and watchful.

Moving up it will face stiff resistance at 39511---39644---39781—39861---39921---39971---40028---40142---40503---40690---40770(these points could be possible sell point also).Please note that up move if any can exhaust at any of these points or earlier also, but if it moves above 39921(the figures will be scaled down if it breaks 38613.15) and sustain on the closing basis then only a strong, meaningful and lasting pullback up move can be expected. It will gain potential strength for strong up momentum once it moves above its long term moving average range and sustain on the closing basis.

In view of the above observation the deep  down correction is on therefore it is a sell on the rise market or sell on the price breakdown in general and for the safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade till a visible sign of correction completion emerges. However aggressive traders can try long trade at important and critical support points for the pullback gains. But be alert and extremely cautious in the long trade initiated for pullback gains because it is in deep corrective mode and you are well aware that pullback rallies are treacherous in nature and can end abruptly trapping the traders unaware. The bias is hugely bearish as of now.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up  then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.