Open—14526.70--High—14526.95—Low—14207.30---Close-14296.40
on 20.4.2021.
Support:14264.40/14248/14222.80/14024.85/13996.11/13981.75/13777.50/13596.75/13399.30/13145.85/13131.45.
Resistance:14350.10/14459.50/14467.75/14484.12/14653.35/14753.55/14883.20/14984.15/15051.60/15176.50/15257.10/15273.15/15336.30/15431.75/15471.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It opened with a huge up gap today
but could not sustain at the higher level and during the day it almost filled
yesterday gap and completely filled todays gap and ended the day with a loss of 63.04
points. Since it has already broken its major rising trend line yesterday and it is already in deep correction mode for
quite some time and slipped into medium term correction mode today, so it is
into downtrend now and therefore steady and significant rise
from here is ruled out on the closing basis but it may give intermittent short relief
rallies from time to time. Its most critical points for the year 2021 are 14024.85---13996.11 & 13981.75 and it is way above these points
now and as long as it holds these points on the closing basis uptrend will
remain intact. Its other key points are at 15131.35---14998.70---14888.80---14336.34---13562.48---12430.50(except
for 12430.50 other figures can change). It is way below its first 3 key point’s of15131.35---14998.70 &14888.80 for the last so many days, therefore
it is already into deep short term correction mode and it seems that it will
last long. It has broken its 4th
key of 14336.34 today, pushing
it into medium term correction mode
which can last even longer and most importantly sustained break below 13562.48 on the closing basis can push
it into long term correction mode and will potentially threaten the uptrend and
finally sustained break below 12430.50
on the closing basis will further dampen the uptrend for sure, which may please
be noted.
It was into deep short term
correction mode for quite some time and today it slipped again into medium term
correction mode which is further bad sign . It is below its short and some medium term moving averages, furthermore it
is well below some of its long term averages and parameters and some important technical
indicators are showing very weak sign on the weekly chart also and most
importantly it has broken its major rising trend line on 19-4-2021 and it is placed at 14490(this
figure will scale up every day) for 22.4.2021, which gives potential indication that further fall from here looks inevitable in
coming days off course with in between short relief rallies from time to time and provided it does not bounce back above its medium term correction mode
threshold point of 14336.34 and within
the trend line again and crosses some of the key points, chances of which happening looks very bleak at this point of
time. Furthermore its pullback threshold point is at 14484.12 (it can change) and it is well below it now, please note
that if it moves above it and sustain on the closing basis then only it could
move up further and could give a moderate to reasonable recovery, else down
move will continue. Going up it will face critical resistance at-14350---14467.75---14484.12---14653---14703---14753.55----14811---14840--14888.80---14998.70---14985---15131.32---15156.30---15176.50---15198.30---15273.15---15336.35---15431.75---15471
levels. Please note that sustained close below the trend line and below 14336.34 could witness further
fall in it and it could hit the range of 13750---13600
or below on the downside in coming days. Going
down it can find critical support at-14264.10---14248.70---14222.80---14191---14024.85---13996.11---13981.75---13953.75---13777.50---13596.75---13562.50---13399---13131.
Kindly, note that the short term technical setup looks very weak.
Therefore short term bias is hugely negative as of now, but the long term setup
is still holding up as of now.
In view of the above observation, it was into deep short term correction mode and it slipped
into medium term correction mode today, furthermore it has already broken its
long term rising trend line which is tremendously weak sign and the overall short
term technical setup is already weak, therefore for safe trader long trade
should be avoided till it gives visible indication of correction completion or
till it closes above 14484.12. However
aggressive traders can try long trade if it holds the range of 14235---14191 but not below it. I once
again caution you that long trade in a corrective or downtrend market could be
a risky propositions and particularly buying on decline. Since it is still in
corrective mode and broken major rising trend line therefore adopt
sell on the rise strategy or sell on the price breakdown for taking advantage
of the down move till clarity on correction completion emerges.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for
it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be
attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa .
Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off
during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested
in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY(Suggested)
1. Buy on decline within the range of 14264---14191 levels with
a stop loss of 14170. It is for aggressive traders and could be a
highly risky trade.
2. Sell on the rise near or within the range 14450---14500
with a stop loss of 14530. It could be a risky trade but worth trying in a corrective
market for intraday gain.
Or
Sell if it moves below 14191 and maintain for some time with a stop
loss of 14270. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain in
corrective market.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not
at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on
the above view.
Kindly note that make
your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE
WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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