Wednesday, 7 April 2021

A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR—7.4.2021

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open—14737--High—14779.10—Low—14573.90---Close-14683.50 on 6.4.2021.

Support:14653.35/14635.05/14540/14467.75/14350.10/14264.40/14222.80/14024.85/13996.11/13981.75/13777.50/13596.75/13399.30/13145.85/13131.45.                                                                                                                     

Resistance:14753.55/14883.20/14977.20/15051.60/15176.50/15257.10/15273.15/15336.30/15431.75/15471/15615/15694/15800/16028/16323/16991.50/17470.                                                                                                                

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It is exhibiting huge volatility, it closed on a reasonable note at 14867.35 on 1.4.2021 but on 5.4.2021 it plunged down sharply and hit a low of 14459.50 but recovered to close at 14637.80. Today also it had a wild swing both ways but it managed to close on a positive note with a gain of 45.70 points. It is still on a weak technical footing and needs to cross the key points mentioned below and sustain on the closing basis to get into the up grove again. Its most critical points for the year 2021 are 14024.85---13996.11 & 13981.75 and it is way above these points now and as long as it holds these points on the closing basis uptrend will remain intact. Its other key points are at 15131.35---14998.70---14888.80---14336.34---13562.48---12430.50(except for 12430.50 other figures can change). It is well below its first 3 key points of15131.35---14998.70 &14888.80 for the last few days, therefore it is already  into  deep short term correction mode and not moving above it which is slightly concerning, sustained break below  14336.34 can push it into medium term correction mode, which could last even longer and most importantly sustained break below 13562.48 on the closing basis can push it into long term correction mode and will potentially threaten the uptrend and finally sustained break below 12430.50 on the closing basis will further dampen the uptrend for sure, which may please be noted.

It is into deep short term correction mode. Furthermore it has moved below its short and medium term moving averages again and still below some of its long term technical parameters, which is concerning. However it is well above its pullback threshold point of 14540(figure can change) so, as long as it hold this level chances are that it could move up in coming days. Going up it will face resistance at-14753.55---14888.80---14998.70---14985---15131.32---15156.30---15176.50---15198.30---15273.15---15336.35---15431.75---15471 levels. Please note that the on-going up move is a pullback rally and it can fizzle out at any of these points, but if it closes above 14888.80 at least and sustain then chances are that it could move further and if it moves and sustain above 15198.30 on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 15431.75 or may go beyond also, chances of crossing 15198.30 level looks slim at this point of time. Similarly going down it can find support at-14848---14755.53---14710---14653---14540---14467.75---14350---14264.10---14222.80---14024.85---13996.11---13981.75---13953.75---13777.50---13596.75---13562.50. Kindly, note that the short term technical setup still looks weak. Therefore short term bias is negative as of now, but the long term bias is still up.

In view of the above observation, it is still into deep short term correction but above pullback threshold point of 14540 therefore for safe trader long trade in general should be avoided till it gives visible indication of correction completion. However the traders who wish to take advantage of the pullback rally can try long trade if it moves and maintain above 14700 for some time or on decline but not below 14637.  Please note that long trade in deep corrective mode and for pullback gains could be risky propositions, particularly buying on decline. Since it is still in corrective mode therefore short trade can also be attempted after reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the down move till clarity on correction completion emerges. Short trade should be tried but with extreme alertness and caution because the long term technical setup still seems o.k. as of now.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY(Suggested)

1. Buy on decline near near14637 but not below it, with a stop loss 14565. It could be a risky trade.

Or

Buy if it moves and maintain above 14700for some time with a stop loss of 14630. It could be a risky trade.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range 14800---14860 with a stop loss of 14910. It could be a risky trade but worth trying in a corrective market for intraday gain.

Or

Sell if it moves below 14637 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 14685. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday gain in corrective market.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

 

 Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 

 

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