A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-2.5.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—24342.05—High—24396.15---Low---24198.75---Close---24334.20 on 30.4.2025.

Support:24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23938.85/23893.70/23873.35/ 23869.65/23816.15/23807.30/23667.20/23664/23644.80/23637.65/23484.15/23537/23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened on a flat to positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day, flat with a meager loss of 1.75 points. It is important to mention here that it has other recent unfilled gaps (gap points are 22923, 22468 & 22254) also on the downside, which is still a huge concern, so, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup looks good for the continuation of the up-move. But it is important to mention here that in view of the recent vertical rise, previous unfilled gaps, negative divergence and the deep overbought zone it seems that the correction it did so far is not enough and the price-wise correction is still not complete, therefore fear of a sharp down move cannot be ruled out in coming times, so, be extremely alert and vigilant in the long trade. So, please note that if it holds 24313.74(figure may change) on the closing basis and then its first critical range of 24235---24226----24175(some figure may change), the up-move is likely to extend further. But break & sustained close below 24313.74 will push it into very short correction mode for its recent rise and break & sustained close below the range of 24235---24226----24175 will be an alert sign and can drag it down, moving down further it will find support at its most critical and bounce back support range of 23893.70----23869.65—23817.15---23807.30 and if it holds this range on the closing basis then the hope of a continued up-move will be alive, but break & sustained close below this range will push it into deep correction mode for its recent rise and may trigger fresh fall and then comes its most critical  support point of 23644.80 & 23637.65, please note that to keep the hope alive for a good up-move in the year 2025 it has to stay above these points on the closing basis. It is a strong bounce back range. But break & sustained close below these points may dampen the hope of a continued up-move and finally it may find last critical support in the range 23551---23502---23433---23341---23305(some figures will change daily), it can bounce back from this range, but break & sustained close below this range may end the up-move for a while and it may witness an accelerated fall and to top it all long term uptrend would be in jeopardy then.  

Moving up the key resistance points could be at 24403----24545---24578----24753.15---24934----24858----25207---25287----25371---25465---25996(some figures may change daily). It can correct at any of these points then may resume the up- move or rally may fizzle out also, but if it moves above 24753.15 on the closing basis then it may get back into the strong up-momentum track and finally if it moves above 25371 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its ultimate top of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also.

IMPORTANT NOTE: SUSTAINED CLOSE ABOVE 24235 ON THE CLOSING BASIS CAN TAKE IT UP TO 24857 LEVELS OR BEYOND. 

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart both, it is above all its short, medium and long term moving averages on the daily, weekly and monthly chart. Furthermore most of the important indicators are positive now and in the buy mode, but it has negative divergence, vertical rise, unfilled gaps and overbought zone is a deep concern, therefore it may correct at times. The overall setup is looking good as long as it holds the critical points mentioned above. Therefore it is suggested to keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for the further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart important indicators such as MACD/ ADX& PS is in the buy mode, but it is in the overbought zone, so it can correct at times and correction is on. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods and further fall may be  on the horizon in coming weeks or  months.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier rise, but it is above its pullback threshold points, therefore it is buy on decline market now till it holds the range of 24235---24226----24175 and finally the range of 23894---23807 on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after reasonable rise or near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH:-

1. It is well above its critical or make or break range of 22702---22800, which is a positive sign.

2. It is making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart.

3. It is way above its short, medium & long pullback threshold point for its earlier fall 22245---22479 & 22814 (figure may change), sustained close above it may help it to extend the up-move.

4. It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 24228----24119----24044----23812---23723---23531(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may help it to extend up-move.

5. Most of the technical indicators are positive and in the buy mode.

6. It is above its major long term rising trend line which is placed at 23502 for the month of May-2025, it is a very good sign.

7. It is above its recent correction threshold point of 23742.01(figure may change), sustained close above it will exhibit the strength in it.

8. It is above its most critical points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will start to drift down.

9. It is above its most critical or second make or break bottom of 23893.70, sustained close above it will enhance the chances of extending the up-move.

10 It is above its top long-term moving averages which is placed at 24175 (figure will change every day) for the day, close above this point is a positive sing for the up-move.

11. It is way above its major long term rising trend line on the daily chart which is placed at 23341(figure will change every day) for the day.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Technical indicator is showing negative divergence and in the overbought zone, so, it may correct at times.

3. It is still way below its first make or break bottom of 24753.15, if it moves above it and sustain on the closing basis then it may get back on the strong up-momentum track.

4. The price action was negative today.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 24235---24226----24175 but not below it with a stop loss of 24060 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid.

 2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24450---24480 with a stop loss of 24540 or can sell near 24396 if it does not move above it even in intraday for one & half hours of trade then with a stop loss of 24460. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com