A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—16.5.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—54853.70---High—55490.55---Low—54442.30---Close—55355.60 on 15.5.2025.

 

Support:55209/55097/54924/54815/54772/54604/54593/54467.35/54176.45/53888.30/53792.85/53531.30/53357.70/52794.95/52782.75/52760.20/52577.50/52493.95/52354.85/51979.75/51749.45/51749.45/51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47702.90/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:55499.65/55646/55691.95/55740/55827/55957.75/56098.70/56159/56307/56721/56767.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a gain of 554.30 points. Please note that the gap it created on 12.5.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 1—2 days, which is technically possible the it can come down to 54054, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for a while, but it will certainly fill the gap one day for sure. It is also important to mention here that it has other recent unfilled gaps (gap points are 51361, 51244 & 50496) also on the downside, which is still a huge concern, so, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The overall technical setup is strong for the continuation of the up-move. It came out of corrective mode today and  decisively moved above its recent critical points or range of 55023.94----55087.15---55100.95, this is a positive sign and if it sustain above it on the closing basis then up-move will extend further. But if it breaks this range then it could find support at 54843---54730—54492(figure may change) and finally it will find support at its  most critical points or range of, 54467.35--54460.45----54176----54166.73----54117.22(today it bounced back from 54442) if it holds this range then the chances of up move will be alive. But break & sustained close below this range will trigger fresh fall and moving down next support points could be at 53959.60---53887.09----53483.05, it may bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close below 53483.05 may witness an accelerated fall. The long term trend is bullish but it is still into short correction mode.

Moving up the resistance points could be at 55500---55538-----55576-----55648-----55740---55827---55958----56099----56159—56307—56721—56767, it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again or may pause the rally for a while. But please note that if it moves above the range of 55500---55538--55576 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 56098.70 or may go beyond it also.

IMPORTANT NOTE:--TODAYS MOVEMENT WAS UNPRECEDENTED IT MAY BE DUE TO WEEKLY EXPIRY ALSO, SO LET THE MARKET CONFIRM IN A DAY OR TWO THAT TODAYS RISE WAS FOR REAL AND NOT A BULL TRAP, BECAUSE IMPORTANT TECHNICAL INDICATORS ARE STILL NEGATIVE. SO BE WATCHFUL.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It crossed its previous top on the line & bar chart and made higher bottom on the line chart; it is above all its short, medium and long term moving average on the daily, weekly & on the monthly chart, which is a positive sign for moving up further. But certain important technical indicators are still negative and in the sell mode such as MACD, P S & EV and negative divergence in RSI and in the overbought zone, so, in totality it is giving mixed signal but earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and overbought zone is still a big concern, so it may correct at times, therefore further fall cannot be ruled out in coming days. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart almost all the important indicators are positive and in the buy mode, but negative divergence and the overbought zone is a concern, so it can correct at times and it is already into corrective mode. On the monthly chart few indicators are in buy mode but it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive for the up-move , but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods therefore further fall may be on the horizon in coming weeks or  months.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE  MARKET  NOW;-

It is buy on decline market now till it holds the range of 55100.95---55087.15---55023.94 and finally the range of 54467.35---54117.22. But short trade can also be tried on the rise and near the critical resistance points or range with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is way above its most crucial bottoms of 50369.40 & 49654.65, if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be very good.

2. It is above its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down.

3. It is above all its long-term moving averages and the top average is placed at 51617 (figure will change every day). Close below this point will be a warning signal.

4 It is above its short, medium & deep correction threshold point of 55023.94---54460.45 & 54117.22 (figure may change) sustained close above these points could be a strong indication for moving up further.

5. It has crossed its previous top on the line & bar chart and made higher bottom on the line chart.

6 It is way above its most critical point of 54467.35, please note that it is essential to stay above this point to keep the up-momentum going in the year-2025, else it may drift down.

7. It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 54861--54843--54798---54792---54735--54280(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may help it to move further.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. It is in the overbought zone and few indicators are still negative and into sell mode on the daily chart such as MACD /PS /EV & negative divergence in RSI, so, it can correct at times.

3. The price action was mixed today.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 55100.95---55087.15---55023.94 and finally near or within the range of 54467.35--54117.22, but not below it with a stop loss of 54780 & 53950 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 55960—56050 with a stop loss of 56200 or can sell if it moves below 54800 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 55150. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.