A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-21.5.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—24996.20—High—25010.35---Low---24669.70---Close---24683.40 on 20.5.2025.

Support:24589.15/24537.60/24498.20/24472.80/24354.55/24198.75/24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23938.85/23893.70/23873.35/23869.65/23847.45/23816.15/23807.30/23667.20/23664/23644.80/23637.65/23484.15/23537/23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:24694.35/24753.15/24792.30/24854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 261.55 points. It is important to mention here that it has recent unfilled gaps (gap points are 24164, 22923, 22468 & 22254) also on the downside, which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The overall technical setup has got a jolt today, it slipped into short correction mode today for its recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 24837.65, it fell below few of its short term moving averages also after a long time and most importantly it has broken its make or break bottom of 24753.15 so all together it is giving a very weak indication, and if does not bounce back above 24753.15 in a shortest possible time and sustain above it on the closing basis then it may derail the up-move for a while or may end it for good for some time and slide down further. Moving down from here it will find support at 24665---24589.15----24526----24457.65---24416---24334.25---24311.90—24214---24180---24172(some figure may change), it can bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close below the range of 24416---24311.90 may trigger fresh fall and thereafter close below each point will weaken it and finally break & sustained close below the range of 24181---24172 may drag it down further. Moving down further it will find its most important & critical support in the range of  23893.70----23869.65—23807.30 , it is a very strong bounce back support range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up-move will be good, but break & sustained close below this range may trigger fresh fall and may end the hope of a continued up-move and then comes its most critical  support point of 23644.80 & 23637.65, please note that to keep the hope alive for a good up-move in the year 2025 it has to stay above these points on the closing basis, else it may accelerate the fall. It is in the long term uptrend, but in short term correction mode as of now.

Moving up the key resistance points could be at 24753.15---24837.65----25116.25---25207---25287----25371---25465---25996(some figures may change daily). It can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up- move again or rally may fizzle out for a while also, but if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get back into strong up-momentum track again, else it may drift down, if it moves above 24838.65 and sustain on the closing basis the it will get out of corrective mode and finally if it moves above 25371 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its ultimate top of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It still has higher top & bottom top on the line & bar chart; but it fell below few of its short term moving average on the daily chart after a long time, but above all on the weekly & monthly chart, it is above all its medium and long term moving average on the daily, weekly & on the monthly chart, which is a positive sign for moving up further. But certain important technical indicators turned negative and in the sell mode such as EV/ST, negative divergence in RSI and in the overbought zone, but certain important indicators are positive also and in buy mode such as MACD/PS & ADX. So, in totality it is giving mixed signal now with slight downward bias. But earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and overbought zone is still a concern, so it may correct at times and it is into correction mode now, therefore it is suggested to be extremely alert and cautious in your long trade commitments. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart important indicators such as MACD/ ADX/ PS &EV is in the buy mode,  but it is in the deep overbought zone, so it can correct at times, but looks good for the up-move. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods and further fall may be  on the horizon in coming weeks or  months.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE  MARKET  NOW;-

It is buying on decline market now till it holds 24578 on the closing basis. But short trade can also be tried on the rise and near the critical resistance points or range with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains. For safe traders it is suggested to try long trade only once it closes above 24753.15 and sustain above it.

STRENGTH:-

1. Most of the technical indicators are positive, and MACD, ADX & PS  in buy mode.

2. It is above its major long term rising trend line which is placed at 23502 for the month of May-2025, it is a very good sign.

3. It is above its most critical points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will start to drift down.

4. It is above its most critical second make or break bottom of 23893.70, sustained close above it will keep the hope alive for resuming the up-move.

5. It is way above its major long term rising trend line on the daily chart which is placed at 23440(figure will change every day) for the day.

6. It is above its very short, short &deep correction threshold points of 24497.02---24412.20 & 23917.61(figure may change).

7 It is way above its top long-term moving averages which is placed at 24181 (figure will change every day) for the day, close below this point would be a weak sign.

8. It is  almost above all(except for few) its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 24774----24689----24657----24603---24477---24416(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may help it to extend the up-move further, else it may start to drift down.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Few technical indicators are negative such as EV in sell mode, negative divergence in RSI and in the overbought zone so, it may correct at times and it is already into correction mode.

3. The price action was negative today.

4. It is below its most critical first make or break bottom of 24753.15, sustained close above it will derail the up-momentum and can drag it down.

5. It is below its short correction threshold point of 24837.65, sustained close below it may deepen the down move.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 24580 but not below it with a stop loss of 24500 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24900---24950 with a stop loss of 25030 or can sell if it moves below 24665 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 24780. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com