A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—21.5.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—55445.30---High—55568.35---Low—54829.45---Close—54877.35 on 20.5.2025.

 

Support:54815/54772/54604/54593/54467.35/54176.45/53888.30/53792.85/53531.30/53357.70/52794.95/52782.75/52760.20/52577.50/52493.95/52354.85/51979.75/51749.45/51749.45/51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47702.90/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:54924/55097/55209/55499.65/55646/55691.95/55740/55827/55957.75/56098.70/56159/56307/56721/56767.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a loss of 543.35 points. It is important to mention here that it has recent unfilled gaps (gap points are 54054.80, 51361, 51244 & 50496) also on the downside, which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The overall technical setup still looks o.k. But today it slipped into short correction mode for its recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 55173.40, furthermore it fell below its first lair of support of 55100.95---55087.15, it fell below few of its short term moving average after a long time and most importantly it has broken its upper channel & short term rising trend line today and the same are placed at 55130 & 55203(figure will scale up every day) respectively for 21.5.2025 , so all together these developments are not good, therefore further fall looks imminent in coming times. However moving down  it will  try to find support at its most critical points or range of, 54467.35--54460.45----54176----54166.73----54117.22, if it holds this range then the chances of up move will be alive. But break & sustained close below this range will trigger fresh fall and it may derail the up-move for good and then moving down next support points could be at 53959.60---53887.09----53483.05, it may bounce back from  these points, but break & sustained close below 53483.05 may witness an accelerated fall and it will get into deep correction mode. It is in the long term uptrend, but in a short term correction mode as of now.

Moving up the resistance points could be at 55087.15---55100.95----55130---55173.40---55203----55500---55538-----55576-----55648-----55692----55740---55827---55958----56098.70, it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again or may pause the rally for a while. But please note that if it moves above the range of 55087.15---55203 and sustain on the closing basis then it may gain strength again and if it moves above 55500---55538—55576(it did cross this range intraday but could not sustain) and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 56098.70 or may go beyond it also, else it may drift down.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It still has higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart; but it fell below few of its short term moving average on the daily chart but above all on the weekly & monthly chart, it is above all its medium and long term moving average on the daily, weekly & on the monthly chart, which is a positive sign for moving up further. But certain important technical indicators are still negative and in the sell mode such as MACD & EV and negative divergence in RSI and in the overbought zone, but few indicators are positive and in the buy mode such as PS, ST & ADX so, in totality it is giving mixed signal but with slight tilt towards downside now, but earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and overbought zone is still a big concern, so it may correct at times and it slipped into correction mode today, therefore further fall cannot be ruled out in coming times. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart almost all the important indicators are positive such as MACD,PS,ADX & EV are in the buy mode, but negative divergence in RSI and the overbought zone is a concern, so it can correct at times. On the monthly chart few indicators are in buy mode but it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive for the up-move , but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods therefore further fall may be on the horizon in coming weeks or  months.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE  MARKET  NOW;-

It is buy on decline market now till it holds the range of 54467.35---54117.22. But short trade can also be tried on the rise and near the critical resistance points or range with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is way above its most crucial bottoms of 50369.40 & 49654.65, if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be very good.

2. It is above its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down.

3. It is above all its long-term moving averages and the top average is placed at 51735 (figure will change every day). Close below this point will be a warning signal.

4 It is above its short, medium & deep correction threshold point of ---54460.45 & 54117.22 (figure may change) sustained close above these points could be a strong indication for moving up further.

5. It has crossed its previous top on the line & bar chart and made higher bottom on the line chart.

6 It is way above its most critical point of 54467.35, please note that it is essential to stay above this point to keep the up-momentum going in the year-2025, else it may drift down.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. It is in the overbought zone and few indicators are still negative and into sell mode on the daily chart such as MACD /EV/ & negative divergence in RSI, so, it can correct at times.

3. It slipped into short correction mode today as it closed below its threshold point of 55173.40, sustained close below it can deepen the down move.

4. It is below almost all (except for few) its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 55038--54991--54973---54942---54870--54519(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may drag it down further.

5. The price action was negative today.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 54467.35--54117.22, but not below it with a stop loss of 53900 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 55350—55420 with a stop loss of 55600 or can sell if it moves below 54800 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 55110. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.