A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—6.5.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—55065.80---High—55345.50---Low—54786.50---Close—54919.50 on 5.5.2025.  

Support:54815/54772/54604/54593/54467.35/54247.70/53888.30/53792.85/53531.30/53357.70/52794.95/52782.75/52760.20/52577.50/52493.95/52354.85/51979.75/51749.45/51749.45/51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47702.90/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/55957.75/56098.70/56159/56307/56721/56767.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a loss of 195.85 points. In view of the last two days move, it seems that the down move can extend further. It is also important to mention here that it has other recent unfilled gaps (gap points are 51361, 51244 & 50496) also on the downside, which is still a huge concern, so, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The overall technical setup is still looks o.k. for the continuation of the up-move. But it is important to mention here that in view of the recent vertical rise, previous unfilled gaps, negative divergence and the deep overbought zone it seems that the correction it did so far is not enough and the price-wise correction is still not complete, therefore fear of a sharp down move cannot be ruled out in coming times, so, be extremely alert and vigilant in the long trade. It is already into very short correction mode now for its recent rise as it is below its threshold points of 55537.36(figure may change)and if it moves below 54532.71 and sustain below it on the closing basis then it could break its recent bottom of 54176.45 and may go beyond it also, furthermore it fell below its other important points of 55100.95 & 55087.15 and if it sustains below it then the chance of up-move in the month of May-2025 will dampen and down move may extend. However  if it holds 54467.35 and then the level of 54460.45 & 54117.22 on the closing basis chances of up move will still be alive; the above points are strong bounce back points. But break & sustained close below 54467.35 will be a warning sign and break & sustained close below 54460.450 & 54117.22 will push it into short & deep correction mode for its recent rise and can drag it down lower and then moving down the broad support points could be at 53888----53739----53358-----53447---52891---52760----52628---52577-----51900---51808, it may bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close below each point will weaken it. The trend is bullish as of now, but I once again reiterate that in view of the vertical rise, unfilled gaps and deep overbought zone it may witness an accelerated down move in coming times. So be extremely cautious and alert in the long trade.    

Moving up the resistance points could be at 55088----55101----55278-----55538-----55648-----55740---55827---55958----56099----56159—56307—56721—56767, it could correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again or may pause the rally for a while.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

After a long time it has made lower top & bottom on the line chart & lower top on the bar chart also, which is a weak sign, but it is above almost all(below few on the daily chart) its short, medium and long term moving average on the daily, weekly & monthly chart, which is positive sign for moving up further. Furthermore few important technical indicators are positive and in the buy mode now, but at the same time few indicators have tuned weak , and are in the sell mode, with negative divergence and in the deep overbought zone. So, in totality it is looking  good for extending the up-move further, but vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and overbought zone is  a concern, so it may correct any time and it may last for few days and the correction is on, therefore it is suggested to be extremely alert and cautious in your long trade commitments. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart almost all the important indicators are positive and in the buy mode, but negative divergence and the overbought zone is a concern, so it can correct at times. On the monthly chart few indicators are in buy mode but it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive for the up-move , but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods therefore further fall may be on the horizon in coming weeks or  months.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is buying on decline market now till it holds 54467.35 and then 54460.450 & 54117.22 on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after a reasonable rise and near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. Few important technical indicators are positive now on the daily chart and in the buy mode.

2. It is way above its most crucial bottoms of 50369.40 & 49654.65, if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be very good.

3. It is above its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down.

4. It is almost above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 55214--55148--54714---54352---53714----53399(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may help it to extend the up-move.

5. It is above all its long-term moving averages and the top average is placed at 51476 (figure will change every day). Close below this point will be a warning signal.

6. It is well above its short & deep correction threshold points of 54460.450 & 54117.22 (figure may change) for its recent rise.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. It is in the overbought zone and few indicators turned into sell mode on the daily chart, so, it can correct at times and the correction is on.

3. It is into very short correction mode as it is below its correction threshold point of 55537.36(figure may change) sustained close below is a weak indication and can drag it down further. 

4. It has made lower top & bottom on the line chart and lower top on the bar chart.

5. The price action was negative today.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 54532--- 54467---54400 but not below it with a stop loss of 54100 or for a possible intraday gain, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 55330—55450 with a stop loss of 55600 or can sell if it stays below 55065 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 55240 .It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.