A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-3.1.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—23783—High—24226.70---Low---23751.55---Close-24188.65 on 2.1.2025.

Support:24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23938.85/23893.70/23873.35/23816.15/23667.20/23664/23644.80/23637.65/23484.15/23350/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.

Resistance:24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --   

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended, the day with a gain of 445.75 points. Please note that today it has filled the gap it created on 19.12.2024 the gap point was 24150. It is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The chart setup has improved a bit with todays robust up move but it is not out of woods as yet.  But as long as it holds 23974.50 & 23893.70 on the closing basis the on-going rally can extend further, but break & sustained close below it will end the possibility of an sustained up-move. However as long as it holds the points of 23644.80----23637.65 on the closing basis chances of up move will be alive in the year 2025 break & sustained close below these points will weaken it immensely and it will drift down. Moving down further the forthcoming important support points could be at 23582-----23579----23537.35, but break & sustained close below this range may trigger fresh fall and then the last ray of hope for the strong bounce back is in the range of 23460.45---23350.40-----23263.15,but break & sustained close below this range may witness an accelerated fall and then it will find strong support in the range of 22794.70----22768.40 and it is needless to mention here that break & sustained close below this range can drag it down to much lower levels, which may please be noted. The short & medium term trend is down and the long term uptrend is threatened. The bias is still negative as of now.

Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 24208----24330---24465(figures will change daily). Please note that if it moves above this range and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. But please note that it may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move and may get into strong up-momentum track only if it moves above 24625.43---24753.15---24857.75 & 25078.30 (figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has crossed its recent top on the line chart today, it moved above all its short term moving average on the daily chart but still below few averages on the weekly chart, it is majorly below its medium term moving average on the daily chart and below few on the weekly chart and most importantly it is below few of its long term moving average on the daily chart which is a treat to the long term uptrend and this is concerning. Furthermore all the important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart and maximum indicators are in the sell mode and it is inching towards overbought zone also.  It is also important to mention here that the price action is consistently weak for some time. Therefore in view of the above further fall is very much on the card in the coming days once this on-going rally is over. So watch out and keep an eye on price action for further directional indication.

 TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on in the maximum indicators, there is huge negative divergence and it is in the overbought/ neutral zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and the down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

BOTH SIDE TRADES CAN BE TRIED NOW.;-

It is still into deep correction mode for its earlier and recent rise, therefore it is sell on the rise market now in general but after today’s strong up-move both side trades can tried depending on the price action for intraday gains. It is suggested to avoid positional trades..

STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the long-term uptrend, but it has been severely threatened.

2. Its most critical points are 23644.80 & 23637.65; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down.

3. It is above its strong pullback threshold point of 23974.50(figure may change).

4. It has crossed its recent top on the line chart.

5. It is above all its short term moving averages on the daily chart and the important average range for the day is between 24179----24160----24018----23980----23905----23803—23780 (figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may help to extend the up-move.

6. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Please note that almost all indicators on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode is on and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates overbought condition and negative divergence.    

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction deep mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43-----24521.63--- 24481.42----- (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 24047.39----- 23659.18--- 21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen.

4. All the seven important technical indicators are negative, maximum indicators on the sell mode now, negative divergence is there but in oversold zone, so it may give a relief rally any time and then may resume down move again.

5. It is below its deep correction threshold point of 24481.42 for its recent rise.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 24070----23975  with a stop loss of 23870 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.  

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24440—24480 with a stop loss of 24560. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com