A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—20.1.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—48959.50---High—49047.20---Low—48309.50---Close—48540.60 on 17.1.2025. 

Support:48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:48636.45/49057.40/49654.65/49688.80/49787.10/49904.40/49974.75/50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a big loss of 738.10 points. It is important to mention here that the next week starting from 20.1.2025 may witness a wild move on the either side because the range of just concluded week was relatively short. The range for the coming week is 49459----47898 and breakout on the either side will decide the direction.  Therefore, it is suggested to watch price action for directional movement. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

It is already into deep corrective mode and the overall chart setup is very weak. Furthermore it is below almost all its key support points; it is way below all its long term moving averages now therefore deeply jeopardizing the long term uptrend and most importantly as it is below its last crucial bottom of 49654.65(it came quite near to it on 16.1.2025)  and if it sustain below it for a longer period of time then the downside correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both and it will seek much lower levels and then the possible strong support points could be at 48264----48058----47898.35---47756(some figure may change), it can bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close below each point will weaken it and finally break & sustained close below 47756 can drag it down to 46100 or lover. The short- & medium-term trend is down and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened and in jeopardy now. The bias is hugely negative as of now.

Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 48789.11---49448.63----49654.65---50062---50369---50473---50796----50841.90---50860.20----51019---51132---51331----51684(some figure will change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 48789.11 and sustain on the closing basis then it may have a weak up-move, if it moves above 49448.63 & 49654.65 and sustain on the closing basis then it will gain a good foothold and chances of extending the up-move will enhance, if it moves above 50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain on the closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for the up move in the year 2025 and if it moves above 51132---51331----51684 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and then it is likely to extend the up-move for sure. But please note that it may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move if it moves above 52690.31 & 52920.42 (figure may change daily) and sustain on the closing basis and finally to get back into the strong up-momentum track again it has to move above 53153.55--53331.55----53370.43----53500.30(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that if it moves above 53153.55 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35 or may go beyond it also.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has made lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart, which is a very weak sign, it is below all its short term moving average on the daily, weekly &  below few averages on monthly chart also, it is below all its medium term moving average on the daily chart & majorly below averages on the weekly chart too and most importantly it is below  all its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly  concerning and jeopardized the long term uptrend. Furthermore, all the important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart and maximum indicators are in the sell mode , but the comforting thing is that it is in the oversold zone and with a positive divergence, therefore it may have a relief rally anytime it had relief rally for three days, but it is not likely to sustain and may fail because the overall setup is very weak therefore this rally may fizzle-out anytime soon and it did ended today and now it may resume the down move again. It is also important to mention here that the price action is consistently weak for some time. Therefore, in view of the above further fall is very much on the card in the coming days. So, it is suggested to keep an eye on price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it is in the sell signal in maximum indicators, and negative divergence is there but in the oversold zone also. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and maximum indicators are in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS SELL ON RISE MARKET NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes at least above 49655 and sustain, but still long trade can also be tried on decline near the critical support points with strict stop losses for intraday gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. NIL

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Please note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators, in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence & on the monthly chart, indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and triggered sell mode also.

3. It is below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93-----50725.73----49201.72---  (figure may change) and if it sustains below these points then it may extend the down move. The other important key correction threshold points are 45416.49 (figure may change)  

4 It is below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 51019---50713---50140---50000-----49610---49258---49154---48906(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can witness an accelerated down move.

5. All the seven technical indicators are negative on the daily chart with sell signal, distinct negative divergence, but in the oversold zone.

6. The long-term uptrend is in jeopardy as it is below all its long-term moving averages.

7. Its below its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down sharply.

8. It is below its long pullback threshold point of 49448.63(figure may change), sustained close below this point will help it to extend down move.

9. It is making lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart.

10. It has broken its crucial bottom of 49654.65.

11. It is below its short pullback threshold point of 48789.11(figure may change), sustained close below this point may extend the down move.

12. The price action was negative today.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 48356---48310 if it holds this range for some time with a stop loss of 48150 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 48900—49000 with a stop loss of 49150 or can sell if it moves below 48300 and maintain for some time then with a stop loss of 48570.It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.