A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-30.1.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—23026.75—High—23183.35---Low---22976.50--Close---23163.10 on 29.1.2025.

Support:23110.80/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.

Resistance:23263.15/23338.70/23350/23391.65/23426.30/23484.15/23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 205.85 points. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

It is already into the deep corrective mode and the overall technical setup is very weak and most importantly its long term uptrend is jeopardized as it is way below its long term moving averages, therefore further fall is very much on the cards in coming times. But short term parameters have improved a bit on the daily chart as it closed above its short pullback threshold point of 23127 and above few short term moving averages also, therefore if it holds the range of 23133---23079(figures may change every day) on the closing basis then the on-going up-move is likely to extend further. But break & sustained close below this range may weaken it and it may resume the down move again and then moving down its most important & critical support points could be at 22976.85--22794.70---22786.90 & 22768.40, break & sustained close below these points and particularly below 22768.40 may trigger fresh fall and then the next important support it will get from its major long term rising trend line, which is placed at 22605 for the day(this figure will inch up-every day), break & sustained close below it may witness an accelerated fall and then the next strong support range would be at 22281—22165---21821---21710 and it could bounce back from this range, but break and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 21150 or lower, which may please be noted. The technical setup is very fragile therefore further fall looks inevitable in coming times. The short-term bias seems up now, but medium-term trend is down and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened and in jeopardy now. The overall bias is negative as of now.

Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 23263.15---23276---23350----23520---23611---23637.65---23644.80---23757----23893.70----23990-----24090----24117----24205---24345(figures will change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 23263.15 & 23276 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get some strength to move up further, if it moves above 23520 &23611 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get good strength  and may enhance the chances of extending the up-move further, if it moves above 23637.65---23644.80 and sustain on the closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for an up-move in the year 2025,if it move above 23893.70  and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold to build the up-move and then the up move is likely to extend further and if it moves above the range of 24117----24205---24345 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. But to get good strength for the continuation of the up-move and to get into strong up-momentum track it has to move above 24481.42---24625.43---24753.15---24857.75 & 25078.30 (figure may change) particularly above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis.

HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY CHART:-It is decisively below its neckline which is placed at 23893.70 and if it sustain below it on the closing basis then the maximum downside target could be in the range of 21850---21510. Please note that this pattern will be negated if it moves above 24857.75 & 25078.35. This is a very powerful pattern and rarely fails. It is therefore suggested that do not remain short if it closes above the neckline of 23893.70 and sustain, similarly do not remain long if it closes below it.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It still has lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart, but today it moved above its few short term moving averages which is a positive  sign for the continuation of the up move, , but it is still below few of its short term moving average on the daily, and all on the weekly & below few on the monthly chart also, it is below all its medium term moving average on the daily chart & below few averages on the weekly chart too and most importantly it is below  all its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly  concerning and jeopardized the long term uptrend. But four out of seven important technical indicators have turned positive today and triggered buy signal in three indicators and positive divergence in one, but inching towards overbought zone, therefore, it can extend up-move if it hold the range of 23133---23079 (range will change every day). Please keep an eye on the price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on in the maximum indicators, there is huge negative divergence but it is in the oversold zone and may stage a recovery of a mild nature but that may not last. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and the down move is on. So, keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS SELL ON RISE MARKET NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes at least above 23427 and sustain, but still long trade can also be tried on decline near the critical support points with strict stop losses for intraday gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is above its very short & short pullback threshold point of 22938 & 23127 (figure may change), sustained close it may help it to move-up further.

2. Four out of seven technical indicators are positive on the daily chart with buy signal in three with positive divergence.

3. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Please note that almost all indicators on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode is on and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates overbought condition and negative divergence.    

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction deep mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43-----24521.63--- 24481.42-----24047.39----23659.18 (figures may change). The other important correction threshold point is 21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen.

4. Three out of seven technical indicators are negative on the daily chart with 2 in sell mode and inching towards overbought zone.

5 It is below half of its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 23347----23311----23187----23133---23128----23079(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can witness an accelerated down move.

6 It is below its medium & long pullback threshold point of 23276 & 23611 (figure may change), sustained close below this point will help it to extend down move.

7. It still has lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart.

8. It is below its most critical points of 23644.80 & 23637.65; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025.

9. It is below all its long-term moving averages therefore severely threatened the uptrend.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 23111---23070 with a stop loss of 22970 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.  

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23340----23370 with a stop loss of 23440. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com