A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—29.1.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—48642.50---High—49247.15---Low—48449.05---Close—48866.85 on 28.1.2025. 

Support:48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:49057.40/49459/49654.65/49688.80//49787.10/49904.40/49974.75/50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened with an up gap and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a robust gain of 802.20 points. The gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 4—5 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come down to 48319, but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but it will fill the gap some day. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

It is already into the deep corrective mode and the overall technical setup is very weak and most importantly its long term uptrend is jeopardized as it is way below its long term moving averages, therefore further fall is very much on the cards in coming times. But after 3 days of fall it sharply rallied today because after breaking almost all the important points yesterday it held its fresh fall trigger point of 48027 and it’s most critical support range of 47898.35 & 47756 at the end. But today’s rally could not sustain at the higher levels and slipped. However, the good thing is that it closed above its very short & short pullback threshold point of 48271 & 48748 and moved above few short term moving averages also after a long time, therefore if it sustains above 48748 on the closing basis then it can  extend the up move further, but break & sustained close below it will weaken it and can drag it down, but finally as long as it holds 47898.35 & 47756 on the closing basis then the hope of an up-move will be alive. Please note that break & sustained close below 47756 can drag it down to the range of 46437---46077 and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 44500 levels or lower. The short- & medium-term trend is down and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened and in jeopardy now. The bias is hugely negative as of now.

Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 49271----49408----49654.65---49944---50253---50491---50598---50817----50841.90---50860.20----50867---51161---51181----51540(some figure will change daily). Please note that, if it moves above 49271 & 49408  and sustain on the closing basis then it may get good strength to move up further, if it moves above 49654.65 and sustain on the closing basis then it will gain a good foothold and chances of extending the up-move will enhance, if it moves above 50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain on the closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for the up move to continue in the year 2025 and if it moves above 51161---51181----51540 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and then it is likely to extend the up-move for sure. But please note that it may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move if it moves above 52679.47 & 52920.42 (figure may change daily) and sustain on the closing basis and finally to get back into the strong up-momentum track again it has to move above 53142.71----53331.55----53370.43----53500.30(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that if it moves above 53142.71 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35 or may go beyond it also.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It crossed its recent top on the line chart and moved above few short term moving average on the daily chart, which is a positive  sign for the continuation of the up move , but it is still below few of its short term moving average on the daily, all on the weekly & few below  on monthly chart also, it is below all its medium term moving average on the daily chart & majorly below averages on the weekly chart too and most importantly it is below  all its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly  concerning and jeopardized the long term uptrend. But four out of seven important technical indicators have turned positive and triggered buy signal in three indicators and positive divergence in one and in oversold zone, therefore, it can extend up-move if it hold the range of 48847---48615 (range will change every day). Please keep an eye on the price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it is in the sell signal in maximum indicators, and negative divergence is there but in the oversold zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and maximum indicators are in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS SELL ON RISE MARKET NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes at least above 49655 and sustain, but still long trade can also be tried on decline near the critical support points with strict stop losses for intraday gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. Four out of seven technical indicators are positive on the daily chart with buy signal in three & positive divergence and in oversold zone.

2. It is above its very short & short pullback threshold point of 48271 & 48748(figure may change), sustained close below these points will help it to extend the up-move.

3 It is above almost all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 49301---49287---48847---48750-----48710---48615(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it to move-up further.

4. It has crossed its recent top on the line chart.

5. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Please note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators, in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence & on the monthly chart, indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and triggered sell mode also.

3. It is below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93-----50725.73----49201.72--- (figure may change) and if it sustains below these points then it may extend the down move. The other important key correction threshold points are 45416.49 (figure may change)  

4. Three out of seven technical indicators are negative on the daily chart with sell signal.

5. The long-term uptrend is in jeopardy as it is below all its long-term moving averages.

6. Its below its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down sharply.

7. It is below its medium & long pullback threshold point of 49271---49408(figure may change), sustained close below these points will help it to extend down move.

8. It has broken its crucial bottom of 49654.65.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 48850---48670 with a stop loss of 48430 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 49550—49650 with a stop loss of 49800 .It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.