A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-13.1.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—23551.90—High—23596.60---Low---23344.35--Close-23431.50 on 10.1.2025.

Support:23350/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.

Resistance:23484.15/23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --   

It opened on a positive note and after that it did not went much higher, thereafter it steadily declined during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 95 points. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

It is already into deep corrective mode and the overall chart setup is weak. Please note that it is below its major key support points, furthermore it is below all its long-term moving averages now therefore deeply jeopardizing the long-term uptrend. However moving down further from here its last critical & strong support range is 23350---23263.15 it could bounce back from this range, but break & sustained close below it may witness an accelerated fall and then it will find the next strong support in the range of 22794.70----22768.40 and it is needless to mention here that break & sustained close below this range can drag it down to much lower levels, which may please be noted. The short- & medium-term trend is down and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened. The bias is hugely negative as of now.

Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 23583---23637.65---23644.80---23697----23820----23893.70----23974.50----24064----24193----24313---24447---24481.42(figures will change daily). Please note that if it moves above 23583 and sustain on the closing basis then it may raise some hope of moving up further, if it moves above 23637.65---23644.80 and sustain on the closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for an up-move in the year 2025,  if it move above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold to build the up-move, if it moves above 23974.50 and sustain on the closing basis then the up move is likely to extend further and if it moves above the range of 24193----24313---24447---24481.42 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. But it may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move and may get into strong up-momentum track only if it moves above 24625.43---24753.15---24857.75 & 25078.30 (figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis.

HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY CHART:-It is decisively below its neckline which is placed at 23893.70 and if it sustain below it on the closing basis then the maximum downside target could be in the range of 21850---21510. Please note that this pattern will be negated if it moves above 24857.75 & 25078.35. This is a very powerful pattern and rarely fails. It is therefore suggested that do not remain short if it closes above the neckline of 23893.70 and sustain, similarly do not remain long if it closes below 23893.70.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It is making lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart, it is below all its short term moving average on the daily & weekly chart and below some average on the monthly chart also, it is below all its medium term moving average on the daily chart and below few on the weekly chart and most importantly it is below all of its long term moving average on the daily chart which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly concerning. Furthermore, all the important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart and maximum indicators are in the sell mode but the comforting thing is that it is in the oversold zone with a positive divergence, therefore it may have a relief rally anytime but it is not likely to sustain and may fail and then it may resume the down move again. It is important to mention here that the price action is consistently weak for some time. Therefore, in totality further fall is very much on the card in the coming days. So, watch out and keep an eye on price action for further directional indication.

 TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on in the maximum indicators, there is huge negative divergence but it is in the oversold zone and may stage a recovery of a mild nature. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and the down move is on. So, keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS SELL ON RISE MARKET NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes at least above 23645 and sustain, but still long trade can also be tried on decline near the critical support points with strict stop losses for intraday gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is still holding its key support points of 23350---23263.15.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Please note that almost all indicators on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode is on and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates overbought condition and negative divergence.    

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction deep mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43-----24521.63--- 24481.42-----24047.39----23659.18 (figures may change). The other important correction threshold point is 21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen.

4. All the seven important technical indicators are negative, maximum indicators on the sell mode now, negative divergence is there but in oversold zone, so it may give a relief rally any time and then may resume down move again.

5. It is below its deep correction threshold point of 24481.42 for its recent rise.

6 It is below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 24115----23996----23888----23847---23750----23720---23700---23676(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can witness an accelerated down move.

7. It is below its strong pullback threshold point of 23974.50(figure may change).

8. It has broken its recent bottom on the line chart.

9. The price action was negative today.

10. It is below its most critical points of 23644.80 & 23637.65; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025.

11. It is below all its long-term moving averages therefore severely threatened the uptrend.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 23344----23265 with a stop loss of 23175 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.  

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23580—23640 with a stop loss of 23720 or sell if it moves below 23344 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 23470 or sell if it remains below 23460 with a stop loss of 23560. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com