A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-19.12.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—24297.95—High—24394.45---Low---24149.85---Close-24198.85 on 18.12.2024.

Support:24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23893.70/23873.35/23816.15/23667.20/23664/23484.15/23350/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.

Resistance:24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --   

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended, the day with a loss of 137.15 points. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The chart setup has weakened further. It has broken almost all the recent important & key support points on the chart. However 24140.85---24131.10 & 24070 is the last recent key support point to keep the hope alive for a bounce back in the month of December-2024, else fall will continue with in between short relief rallies and most importantly sustained close below 24070 can drag it down to 23873 or lower. Please note that it may get some strength for the up-move if it moves above 24316.91----24462----24481.42----24537.60----24625.43(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, sustained close above 24316.91 will give a ray of hope that it can extend the up-move  and sustained close  24462 & 24481.42 will enhance the strength for the move up to extend further. But to get back into the strong up-momentum track it has to move above 24753.15 & 24857.75 and sustain on the closing basis. It is into short & deep correction mode for earlier and recent rise now and the long term uptrend is also threatened.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-

The weakness has extended further but if it holds 24140.85---24131.10 & 24070 on the closing basis then there is a slim chance of a bounce back; else it will continue to slide down. Please note that it will get back into the strong up-momentum track only once it moves above   24316.91----24462----24481.42----24537.60----24625.43---24753.15 & 24857.75 (figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. . But if it stays below these points for a longer period of time on the closing basis then it may be heading for a reasonable to sharp fall in coming days.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-

Moving down from here it may find good support at 24148---24140.85----24131.10---23974.50----23935----23893.70----23873.35----23811-----23689-----23571------23350.15-----23338.70---23263.15------23110.80---22794.70----22775---22281---22165(few figures may change daily). It can bounce back from any of these points, it already triggered fresh weakness two days back, it is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise and most importantly it has already threatened the long term uptrend, break & sustained close below 24140.85----24131.10 & 24070 will lose the upside momentum steam for the month of December-2024, break & sustained close below 23974.50 will end the possibility of an up-move for good for a while, break & sustained close below 23893.70 & 23873.35 will push it back into big correction mode again and if it sustains below it for a longer period of time then the correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both. Thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it further and finally moving down its last strong support range could be between 23689---23571(figure will change daily) and then 23350---23263(figure will change daily), break & sustained close below the range of 23689---23571 may trigger fresh fall and break & sustained close below the range of 23350---23263 may accelerate the fall and may seek much lower levels.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on, there is huge negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS SELL ON RISE MARKET NOW.;-

It has slipped into deep correction mode today for its recent rise, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes above 24481.42, but long trade can also be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the long-term uptrend, but it has been threatened.

2. It is far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. Two out of the seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart; the buy mode is still on in one indicator, positive divergence is there.

4. It is way above its strong & long pullback threshold point of 23974.50(figure may change).

5. It is above its key point of 24140.85 & 24131.10 which is essential to keep the up-momentum going in the month of December-2024.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Please note that almost all indicators on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates overbought condition and negative divergence.    

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction deep mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43-----24521.63--- 24481.42----- (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 24047.39-----23659.18---21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen.

4. Five out of seven important technical indicators are negative, stating overbought condition and 3 indicators giving sell signal too.

5. The price action was weak today.

6. It has broken its recent bottom on the line chart today.

7. It is below its deep correction threshold point of 24481.42 for its recent rise.

8. It is below its short pullback threshold point of 24316.91(figure may change).

9. It is below almost all its short term moving averages on the daily chart and the important average range for the day is between 24578----24520----24475----24463----24401----24349 (figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may witness an accelerated fall.

10. It is below few long terms moving average now 24462----24335 & 24213 and the other long term moving average are 23935----23811----23689 &23571, please note that sustained close below these points will weaken it and will drag it down.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried if it holds 24181 for some time with a stop loss of 24110 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.  

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24360—24380 with a stop loss of 24490 or can sell if it moves below24130 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 24220. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com