A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-18.12.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—24584.80—High—24624.10---Low---24303.45---Close-24336 on 17.12.2024.

Support:24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23893.70/23873.35/23816.15/23667.20/23664/23484.15/23350/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.

Resistance:24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --   

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended, the day with a loss of 332.25 points. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

It is important to mention here that the wild movement it had on 13.12.2024 indicated that the top is already in the place, therefore, till it moves above 24857.75 and sustain on the closing basis the on-going up-move may end here and it may start to drift down and today’s move almost confirmed that the up-move may have ended for now. Please note that I have cautioned about it in my write-up for 16.12.2024.  Furthermore it has closed below its immediate key support point of 24625.43---24537.60---24481.42----24450 which is a very weak sign, however 24340.56 and then 24140.85 & 24131.10 is the last recent key support points for now and if it manages to hold these points on the closing basis then there may be a slim chance of a bounce back, else it may continue to go down further.

The chart setup has weakened, It has broken its recent bottom on the line chart today, it has fallen below majority of its short &  medium moving averages on the daily chart, below majority of short & few medium term moving average on the weekly chart and most importantly below one long term moving averages on the daily chart which is a very concerning. Furthermore few important technical indicators are positive now and in buy mode and with positive divergence. But the concerning thing is that it is in the overbought zone and few indicators also turned negative. Therefore all together the indicators are giving mixed signal and price action has also not been consistently positive therefore it is suggested to keep an eye on price action for further directional indication. It is into short & deep correction mode now and the long term uptrend is also threatened today.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-

Please note that if it holds 24140.85 & 24131.10  on the closing basis then  there is a slim chance of a bounce back, but it will get back into the strong up-momentum track only once it moves above  24340.56---24450----24481.42----24537.60--- 24625.43---24753.15 & 24857.75 (some figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. But if it stays below these points for a longer period of time on the closing basis then it may be heading for a reasonable to sharp fall in coming days.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-

Moving down from here it may find good support at 24330-----24314-----24226-----24207-----24140.85----24131.10---23974.50----23924----23893.70----23873.35----23805-----23684-----23565------23350.15-----23338.70---23263.15------23110.80---22794.70----22775---22281---22165(few figures may change daily). It can bounce back from any of these points, please note that today it has slipped into short & deep correction mode for its recent rise and threatened the long term uptrend as it closed below its threshold points of  24625.43--- 24481.42 & 24458, break & sustained close below 24140.85 & 24131.10 will lose the upside momentum steam for the month of December-2024, break & sustained close below 23974.50 will end the possibility of an up-move for good, break & sustained close below 23893.70 & 23873.35 will push it back into big correction mode again and if it sustains below it for a longer period of time then the correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both. Thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it further and finally moving down its last strong support range could be between 23684---23565(figure will change daily) and then 23350---23263(figure will change daily), break & sustained close below the range of 23684---23565 may trigger fresh fall and break & sustained close below the range of 23350---23263 may accelerate the fall and may seek much lower levels.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on, there is huge negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS SELL ON RISE MARKET NOW.;-

It has slipped into deep correction mode today for its recent rise, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes above 24481.42, but long trade can also be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the long-term uptrend, but it has been threatened today.

2. It is far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. Three out of the seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart; the buy mode is on, huge positive divergence is there.

4. It is way above its strong & long pullback threshold point of 23974.50(figure may change).

5. It is above its key point of 24140.85 & 24131.10 which is essential to keep the up-momentum going in the month of December-2024.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Please note that almost all indicators on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates overbought condition and negative divergence.    

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction deep mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43-----24521.63--- 24481.42----- (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 24047.39-----23659.18---21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen.

4. Two out of seven important technical indicators are negative, stating overbought condition and sell signal too.

5. The price action was weak today.

6. It has broken its recent bottom on the line chart today.

7. It is below its deep correction threshold point of 24481.42 for its recent rise.

8. It is below its short pullback threshold point of 24340.56(figure may change).

9. It is below almost all its short term moving averages on the daily chart and the important average range for the day is between 24605----24594----24522----24486----24422----24314 (figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may witness an accelerated fall.

10. Four out of seven indicators are negative now pointing overbought zone & sell mode.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 24180----24140 with a stop loss of 24050 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.  

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24500—24540 with a stop loss of 24630 or can sell if it moves below 24300 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 24380. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com