A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-11.12.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—24652.65—High—24677.80---Low---24510.65---Close----24610.05 on 10.12.2024.

Support:24537.60/24498.20/24472.80/24354.55/24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23893.70/23873.35/23816.15/23667.20/23664/23484.15/23350/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.

Resistance:24694.35/24753.15/24854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --   

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended, the day with a small loss of 8.95 points. Please note that it is exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

It had a down day for the 3^rd day in a row, but it is still showing reasonable strength for the continuation of the up move, but still not yet out of danger of going down again. Please note that it is into short correction mode for its recent rise as it below its threshold point of 24625.43, however moving down from here even if it holds the support points at 24537.60---24481.42----24416---24343----24140.85---24131.10(some figure may change daily) then the chances of extending the up-move will be alive. But break & sustained close below 24537.60(it did break this level intraday) will trigger weakness, break & sustained close below 24481.42 will push it into deep corrective mode for its recent rise, break & sustained close below 24416 will threaten the long term uptrend again, break & sustained close below 24343 will weaken it further and finally break & sustained close below 24140.85 & 24131.10 will lose the upside momentum steam for the month of December-2024. Similarly moving up it will face very stiff resistance at 24694.35 & 24753.15. Please note that till it moves above 24753.15(it did move above it decisively intraday on 5.12.2024 but could not close above it) and sustain on the closing basis fear of an abrupt fall will always be there and the on-going up-move may end for good and it may start moving down again, but sustained close above this mark will ensure that it may get back into, the strong up-momentum track again and then the broad upside target could be 24771---25126----25566---25675 and if it moves above 25675 and sustain on the closing basis then it may retest its all-time high of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also. Therefore please note that any rise before it closes above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis could be a possible bull trap, therefore it is suggested to ride the on-going rise with utmost alert and caution.

The overall chart setup has improved, it has made higher top on the line & bar chart, it is above all its short & almost above maximum medium term moving averages on the daily chart, above almost all short & above all medium term moving averages on the weekly chart and most importantly it is above all its long terms moving average on the daily chart, which is very positive sign for the continuation of the up-move. Furthermore all the important technical indicators are positive now with buy mode and huge positive divergence but in the overbought zone, so it may correct little further, so all together chart setup & indicators are giving positive signals, therefore it is likely to extend the on-going up-move further provided it holds the key points as mentioned above on the closing basis. The long term uptrend is intact as of now.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-

Please note that if it holds 24537.60---24481.42----24416---24343----24140.85---24131.10(some figure may change) on the closing basis then it can extend the up-move , but moving up it will face very strong resistance at 24753.15 and if it moves above it and sustain on the closing basis then it is likely that it will strongly extend the up-move and may get back into the strong up-momentum track again and then the broad upside target could be 24771---25126----25566---25675 and if it moves above 25675 and sustain on the closing basis then it may retest its all-time high of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also.   

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-

Moving down from here it may find good support at 24537.60---24481.42----24416---24271-----24149-----24140.85----24131.10---23974.50----23893.70----23873.35----23834-----23740----23719----23618------23594------23500-----23350.15-----23338.70---23263.15------23110.80---22794.70----22775---22281---22165(few figures may change daily). Please note that it can bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close below 24537.60 will trigger weakness, break & sustained close below 24481.42 will push it into deep corrective mode for its recent rise, break & sustained close below 24416 will threaten the long term uptrend again, break & sustained close below 24343 will weaken it further, break & sustained close below 24140.85 & 24131.10 will lose the upside momentum steam for the month of December-2024, break & sustained close below 23974.50 will end the possibility of continuing the up-move, break & sustained close below 23893.70 & 23873.35 will push it back into big correction mode again and if it sustains below it for a longer period of time then the correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both. Thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it further and finally moving down its last strong support range could be between 23638---23520(figure will change daily) and then 23350---23263(figure will change daily), break & sustained close below the range of 23638---23520 may trigger fresh fall and break & sustained close below the range of 23350---23263 may accelerate the fall and may seek much lower levels.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on, there is huge negative divergence and it is in neutral or little overbought zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS BOTH SIDE TRADEABLE MARKET NOW.;-

Both side trades can be attempted depending on the price action for intraday gains. But since it is showing some strength in the chart setup therefore preferably long trade can be tried on decline till it hold key levels as mentioned above..

STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the long-term uptrend.

2. It is far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. All the seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart, the buy mode is on, huge positive divergence is there but in overbought zone, so it may correct for a while and then may resume the up-move again.

4. It is above all its short term moving averages on the daily chart and the important average range for the day is between 24522----24438----24413----24317----24285----24196-------24075 (figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it to extend the up-move.

5. It is way above its strong pullback threshold point of 23974.50(figure may change).

6. It is above its deep correction threshold point of 24481.42 for its recent rise.

7. It is above its key point of 24140.85 & 24131.10 which is essential to keep the up-momentum going in the month of December-2024.

9. It has made higher top on the line & bar chart both.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Please note that almost all indicators on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates overbought condition and negative divergence.    

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction deep mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27-----24625.43----- (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at –24521.63---24481.42-----24047.39-----23659.18---21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen. 

4. The price action was weak today.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 24570----24540 with a stop loss of 24470 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24750—24780 with a stop loss of 24860.  It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com