A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—19.12.2024

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—52696.95--High—52827.60-Low—52010.65--Close—52139.55 on 18.12.2024. 

Support:51749.45/51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50865.45/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49057.40/48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a loss of 695.25 points. Please note that the gap it created on 25.11.2024 is yet to be filled and the gap point is 51271. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The chart setup has weakened further. It has broken almost all the recent important & key support points on the chart. However 52132.82---52087.65 & 52055.60(it broke all these points intraday today but managed to close above it) is the last recent key support point to keep the hope alive for a bounce back in the month of December-2024, else fall will continue with in between short relief rallies and most importantly sustained close below 52132.82 can drag it down to 51694 or lower. Please note that it may get some strength for the up-move if it moves above 52453.78---52920.42 & 53370.4(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, sustained close above 52453.78 will give a ray of hope that it can extend the up-move and to get back into the strong up-momentum track it has to move above 53531.30---53644.50 & 53888.30 and sustain on the closing basis. It is into short & deep correction mode for its recent & earlier rise now. But long term uptrend is intact as of now.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has broken its recent bottom on the line chart, it has fallen below the entire short & below few medium term moving average on the daily chart, below few short term moving average on the weekly chart also which is a weak sign. But above all the medium and long term moving averages on the weekly & monthly chart which is a positive sign for moving up. Furthermore all the important technical indicators have turned negative today on the daily chart which indicates it has triggered sell mode in maximum indicators, negative divergence but inching towards oversold zone, so it may stage a relief rally some time, therefore all the indicators together are giving weak signal. Furthermore it is also important to mention here that the price action has not been consistently positive off late. Therefore in view of the above further fall is very much on the card in the coming days. Therefore it is suggested to keep an eye on price action for further directional indication. The long term uptrend is intact as of now. But it is in the short term corrective mode now.  

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-

The weakness has extended further but if it holds 52132.82---52087.65 & 52055.60( broke all the points intraday today) on the closing basis then there is a slim chance of a bounce back; else it will continue to slide down. Please note that it will get back into the strong up-momentum track only once it moves above   52544.66----52920.42---53370.43---53531.30---53644.50 & 53888.30 and sustain on the closing basis and then it may retest its all-time high of 54467.35 or may go beyond it also. But if it stays below these points for a longer period of time on the closing basis then it may be heading for a reasonable to sharp fall in coming days.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-

Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on the upside) 52132.82----52087.65----52055.60----52014-----51963------51881----51752-----51679----51421----51380----51096-----51056----50891.64------50741----50617------50420------50102-------49654.65----49201.72-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756(figures may change), it can bounce back from any of these points, Please note that  today it has already triggered fresh weakness, it is into short & deep corrective mode for its recent & earlier rise and recent up-rally is in the  jeopardy and thereafter break & sustained close below each point will weaken it, break & sustained close below 51752 will threaten the long term uptrend, break & sustained close below 50891.64 may end the possibility of the up move for good for a while and thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it further, but the range of 50420----50102----49787----49654 is the last very strong bounce back support range, if it break & sustain below this range on the closing basis, then it may have an accelerated fall. Please note that sustained close below 50102 may potentially end the long term uptrend for the time being and finally if it break the range of 48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756 and sustains on the closing basis then the correction could be more painful price-wise & time-wise both, which may please be noted.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart indicators are giving mixed signal, it is in buy mode now, but there is huge negative divergence and in overbought zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS SELL ON RISE MARKET NOW.;-

It has slipped into deep correction mode today for its recent rise, therefore it is sell on the rise market now till it closes at least above 52453.78(figure may change)  and sustain, but long trade can also be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the long-term uptrend.

2. It is well above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.

3 It is well above its strong pullback threshold point of 50891.64(figure may change), sustained close above this point will keep the hope alive for the up-move.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Please note that indicators, on the weekly chart are in buy mode but in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence & on the monthly chart, indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence.

3. It is below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43--- (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points then it may extend the down move. The other important key correction threshold points are 52098.30------51549.93---- 50725.73---- 49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change)  

4 It is below its major short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 53284----53129----52999-----52966-----52699----52655(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can witness an accelerated down move.

5. It has broken its recent bottom on the line chart.

6. The price action was weak today.

7. All the seven technical indicators are negative on the daily chart with sell signal, distinct negative divergence, but slightly inching towards oversold zone..

8 It is below its short pullback threshold point of 52453.78(figure may change), sustained close below this point will keep the down move on.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried if it hold the range of 52133----52056 for some time, then with a stop loss of 51950 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 52500--52600 with a stop loss of 52700  or can sell if it moves below 52000  and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 52290.It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.