A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-16.12.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—24498.35—High—24792.30---Low---24180.80---Close----24768.30 on 13.12.2024.

Support:24753.15/24694.35/24537.60/24498.20/24472.80/24354.55/24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23893.70/23873.35/23816.15/23667.20/23664/23484.15/23350/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.

Resistance:24854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --   

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended, the day with a gain of 219.60 points. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility and today was one such day, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

Today there was huge volatility, it dipped sharply in the first session but staged sharp recovery in the 2^nd half of the day thereby showed good strength and crossed it’s all recent tops on the line chart and also got out the short corrective mode for its recent rise and most importantly it closed above its critical & key point of 24753.15 which is a positive sign for the continuation of the up-move and if it sustain above it on the closing basis then it can get into strong up momentum track. But it is important to mention here that today’s movement and volatility near the recent previous top which was at 24857.75(made on 5.12.2024) also signifies that the top is already in the place for now till it moves above it and sustain on the closing basis. Therefore it is suggested to be fearful and cautious in the long trade till it closes above 24857.75 and sustain because it could be a bull trap also.

The technical setup indicates that the up-move may extend further if it sustains above 24753.15 on the closing basis, but today’s movement indicates that this up-move can only extend if it moves above 24857.75 and sustain on the closing basis else it may start to drift down again, so watch out next 1-2 trading sessions how it pans out. However even if it moves down from here but holds the points of 24625.43---24537.60---24481.42----24441---24340--- (some figure may change daily) on the closing basis then the chances of up-move will still be alive.

The overall chart setup has improved, it is above all its short, medium and long term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart which is a hugely positive sign for the continuation of the up-move and if it sustain above the averages then the up-move is likely to extend further. Furthermore few important technical indicators are positive now in buy mode and with positive divergence. But the concerning thing is that it is in the overbought zone and few indicators also turned negative today despite big rise. Therefore all together the indicators are giving mixed signal and price action has also not been consistently positive therefore it is suggested to keep an eye on price action for further directional indication. The long term uptrend is intact as of now.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-

Please note that if it holds 24753.15 on the closing basis then it is strongly likely to extend the up-move and may get back into the strong up-momentum track again and then the broad upside target could be 24771---24858----25126----25566---25675 it may correct at any of these points and may resume the up-move again or may end the up-move for a while. But if it moves above 25675 and sustain on the closing basis then it may retest its all-time high of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also.   

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-

Moving down from here it may find good support at 24753.15---24625.43----24537.60---24481.42----24441---24316-----24192-----24140.85----24131.10---23974.50----23893.70----23873.35----23787-----23782----23668----23661------23547------23350.15-----23338.70---23263.15------23110.80---22794.70----22775---22281---22165(few figures may change daily). Please note that it can bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close below 24753.15 will indicate that the up-move may be over for now, break & sustained close below 24625.43 will push it into short corrective mode for its recent rise, break & sustained close below 24537.60 will trigger fresh weakness, break & sustained close below 24481.42 will push it into deep corrective mode for its recent rise, break & sustained close below 24441 will threaten the long term uptrend again, break & sustained close below 24340 will weaken it further, break & sustained close below 24140.85 & 24131.10 will lose the upside momentum steam for the month of December-2024, break & sustained close below 23974.50 will end the possibility of continuing the up-move for good, break & sustained close below 23893.70 & 23873.35 will push it back into big correction mode again and if it sustains below it for a longer period of time then the correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both. Thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it further and finally moving down its last strong support range could be between 23668---23547(figure will change daily) and then 23350---23263(figure will change daily), break & sustained close below the range of 23668---23547 may trigger fresh fall and break & sustained close below the range of 23350---23263 may accelerate the fall and may seek much lower levels.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative, sell mode is on, there is huge negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKERT NOW.;-

It is buying on decline market now till it holds 24753.15---24625.43---24537.60---24481.42----24441---24340(figure may change) but short trade can also be attempted after a reasonable rise for intraday corrective gain. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.

 

STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the long-term uptrend.

2. It is far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. Five out of the seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart, the buy mode is on, huge positive divergence. is there but in overbought zone, so it may correct for a while and then may resume the up-move again.

4. It is almost above all its short term moving averages on the daily chart and the important average range for the day is between 24628----24577----24539----24436----24405----24217----24213---24091 (figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it to extend the up-move.

5. It is way above its short & strong pullback threshold point of 24340.56 & 23974.50(figure may change).

6. It is above its deep correction threshold point of 24481.42 for its recent rise.

7. It is above its key point of 24140.85 & 24131.10 which is essential to keep the up-momentum going in the month of December-2024.

8. It has crossed all its recent top on the line chart today.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Please note that almost all indicators on the weekly chart are negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates overbought condition and negative divergence.    

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction deep mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25098.32-----25064.27----- (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 24625.43----- 24521.63---24481.42-----24047.39-----23659.18---21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen.

4. Two out of seven important technical indicators are negative, stating overbought condition and sell signal too.

5. The price action was mixed today.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried if it holds 24753.15 for some time with a stop loss of 24600 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24870—24920 with a stop loss of 24970 or can sell if it moves below24750 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 24820. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com