A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-2.12.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—23927.15—High—24188.45---Low---23927.15---Close----24131.10 on 29.11.2024.

Support:24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23893.70/23816.15/23667.20/23664/23484.15/23350/23338.70/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.

Resistance:24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24854.80/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --   

It opened on a flat to positive note and the open was the low also for the day and thereafter it moved up and had both side moves in the upper range during the day and finally ended, the day with a gain of 216.95 points.

It had a nice up move today after previous day’s sharp fall and moving up from here it will face very stiff resistance at 24355---24365---24538 & 24753.15(some figure may change). Please note that till it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis fear of abrupt fall will always be there but sustained close above this mark will ensure that it may get back into the strong up-momentum track again. Therefore please note that any rise before it closes above 24753.15 and sustain could be a bull trap.  Similarly moving down it has strong support points at 24097---23974.50 & 23893.70, break & sustained close below 24097 will push it into corrective mode for its recent rise and it is already into deep correction mode for its earlier rise, break & sustained close below 23974.50 will end the possibility of continuing the up-move and finally break & sustained close below 23893.70 will push it back in the very deep corrective mode again and then it may have an accelerated down move and possibly it may break its recent low of 23263.15 made on 21.11.2024 and may seek much lower levels. Therefore moving down 23893.70 is a decider point and moving up the decider point is 24753.15.

The overall chart setup is still weak, it is already into the deep correction mode for earlier rise , it has broken it recent bottom on the line chart, it is below all its short term moving average on the weekly chart and below some short term moving average on the monthly chart also, it is also below all medium term moving averages on the daily and few below weekly chart also, and most importantly it is  below few long terms moving average on the daily chart, therefore long term uptrend is still under threat, which is highly concerning and indicates further fall may be ahead. But the positive thing is that it bounced back almost above all its short term moving average on the daily chart and almost all the important technical indicators are positive now with buy mode and huge positive divergence but in slight overbought zone, so all together indicators are giving positive signals, therefore chart setup & technical indicators are giving mixed signals, therefore in totality it seems that the up-can extend a bit provided it holds the key points as mentioned above. The short & medium term trend is bearish and the long term uptrend is still under threat and the threat will only end once it moves above 24365(figure will change daily) and sustain on the closing basis.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-

Please note that if it holds 24097----23974.50 &23893.70 on the closing basis then the chance of the up-move will be alive,  if it moves above 24365 and sustain on the closing basis, then it will end the long term uptrend threat and will immensely help to extend the up-move and if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it is likely that it will strongly extend the up-move and may resume the big up-move too.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-

Moving down from here it may find good support at 24097----23974.50----23893.70----23768-----23696----23651----23572------23531------23458-----23350.15-----23338.70---23263.15------23110.80---22794.70----22775---22281---22165(few figures may change daily). Please note that it can bounce back from any of these points, it was already into deep correction for its earlier rise, break & sustained close below 24097 will push it into corrective mode for its recent rise, break & sustained close below 23974.50 will end the possibility of continuing the up-move, break & sustained close below 23893.70 will push it back into big correction mode if it sustains below it for a longer period of time then the correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both. Thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it further and finally moving down its last strong support range could be in the range of 23572---23458(figure will change daily) and then 23350---23263(figure will change daily), break & sustained close below the range of 23572---23458 may trigger fresh fall and break & sustained close below the range of 23350---23263 may accelerate the fall and may seek much lower levels.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative ,sell mode is on , there is huge negative divergence but the only comforting thing is that it is in oversold zone, so today’s up-move can extend a bit, so watch out. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication. The undertone is bearish as of now.  

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW IN GENERAL;-

It is into the deep correction mode therefore it is sell on rise market now in general till it gets out of the correction mode or give visible sign of correction completion, but aggressive traders can try both side trades depending on the price action for intraday gains, but long trade could be a risky affair.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is still in the long-term uptrend; but it is still under threat.

2. It is far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. Six out of seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart, the buy mode is on, huge positive divergence is there but in overbought zone, so it may correct for a while and then may resume the up-move.

4. It is almost above all its short term moving averages on the daily chart and the important average range for the day is between 24155----24066----24038----23981----23934---23849 (figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it to extend the up-move.

5. It is above its strong pullback threshold point of 23974.50(figure may change).

6. It is above its correction threshold point of 24097 for its recent rise.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Please note that almost all indicators on the weekly chart are  negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates overbought condition and negative divergence.    

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction deep mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25106.68----25098.32-----25064.27-----24521.63--- 24367.34 (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at --24097----24047.39---- 23659.18--- 21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen. 

4. The long term uptrend is still under threat as it is below its important threshold point of 24365(figure will change daily) on the daily chart.

5. It has decisively broken its recent bottom of 24194.50 on the line chart today.

6. The price action was mixed today.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 24097----24066 with a stop loss of 23950 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24355—24400 with a stop loss of 24470 or can sell if it moves below 23870 with a stop loss of 23985.  It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com