A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—4.11.2024

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—51550.15--High—51825.50--Low—51459.40--Close—51673.90 on 1.11.2024. 

Support:51354.85/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85. 

Resistance:51750.10/51996.65/52199.45/52340.25/52577.50/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53741.40/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55827/56135/56218.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 198.55 points. The overall chart setup is still weak, it is still  into the deep correction mode for its earlier rise and also into corrective mode  for its recent rise as it is below its threshold point of 52015.06(figure may change), amid volatility it has again bounced back above almost all its short term moving averages on the daily chart but still below few short term moving averages on the weekly chart and also below few medium term moving averages on the daily chart, it has again given upside breakout from its down trend line, it has made higher top & bottom on the line chart all developments together is a positive sign. Furthermore few important technical indicators have turned positive and triggered buy signal also, therefore all together it is painting a mixed picture as of now, therefore it has to be seen how it pans-out in the next 2-3 trading sessions. The short & medium term bias is down, but the long term uptrend is still intact.

It is important to mention here that to keep the up momentum going in the month of November-2024, it has to maintain above 51550.15---51475.35----51202.74---51064(some figure may change daily) and sustain on the closing basis, then the up-move can extend, else it may lose the steam and start moving down.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-

 Please note that if It holds the range 51609---51550.15----51475.15---51202.74 & 51064 (figure may change) on the closing basis then it can extend the up-move but break & sustained close below this range and particularly below 51202.74 & 51064 it may end the possibility of an up-move for a while. Please note that if it sustains above 51202.74 on the closing basis then the broad upside target could be 51739-----51827---52059-----52138---52331----52577----52835----53459---53613 it can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again or up-move can fizzle out for good also. Please note that to gain a strong foothold again it has to move above the range of 51686---51724---51868---52015.06---52263---52367---52487.43(figure may change)  and sustain on the closing basis, for strong strength for the continuation of the up-move it has to move above the range of 53331.55-----53357.70----53500.30----53556(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and it will get into the strong up momentum track if it moves above 53613 & 53636.71(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35 or can go beyond it also.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-

Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on the upside) 51609----51563----51471----51251-----51202.74------51064-----50817----50740-----50725.76----50617------50510-----50421---50081----49836-----49767----49654.65------49511-----49462----49201.72-----49185-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756(figures may change), it can bounce back from any of these points, break & sustained close below 51202.74 & 51064 may end the possibility of a continued up –move for the time being. But  please note that  the range of 51064----50817----50740-----50725----50617---50510-----50421 and then 50081----49817----49836---49767-----49654.65----49511---49462----49185(figure will change every day) is a very strong bounce back support range,  break & sustained close below 51064 will threaten the long term uptrend and thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it further, break and sustained close below 49185 may potentially end the long term uptrend for the time being and finally if it break the range of 48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756 and sustains on the closing basis then the correction could be more painful price-wise & time-wise both, which may please be noted.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY, WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

It is important to mention here that it is having a see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, now the oversold/ neutral condition on the daily& weekly chart but overbought condition persist on the monthly, some indicators triggered buy signal also  but the few technical indicators are still weak and most importantly  huge negative divergence  is there on the daily,  weekly and monthly chart , so all together these developments are painting a mixed picture now , so watch out for the next 2-3 days how it pans out eventually. But all indication together based on the  indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down  and may seek much lower levels in coming days with intermittent relief rallies after this on-going rally finally ends and the break and sustain  close below 51202.74 &51064(figure may change) will possibly end the rally, else chances of up-move will be alive.

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW IN GENERAL;-

It is into the deep correction mode therefore it is sell on rise market now in general till it gets out of the correction mode or give visible sign of correction completion, but aggressive traders can try both side trades depending on the price action for intraday gains, but long trade could be a risky affair.  

STRENGTH: -

1. It is still in the long-term uptrend; break below 51064 will threaten the long term uptrend.

2. It is well above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.

3. It is above its weak & strong pullback threshold point of 50900.11 & 51202.74(figure may change) respectively, price above these points may help it extend the up-move.

4. Two out of seven important indicators is positive on the daily chart, indicating overbought condition, but triggered buy signal.

5. It l has made higher top & bottom on the line chart.

6 It is above almost all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 51471---51531---51563----51573---51609---51686(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it to extend the rally.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Five out seven important indicators on the daily chart are negative , given negative divergence, in the overbought/neutral zone, but buy signal is on. Please note that indicators, on the weekly & monthly chart, also indicating overbought condition, sell signal and negative divergence too.

3. It is into deep correction mode as it is  below some of the correction threshold points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55--52487.43---52098.30----52015.06 (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at ----51549.93----51492.11 ----50725.73----49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen.

4. It slipped into correction mode for its recent rise as it closed above its threshold point of 52015.06(figure may change).

5 The price action was mixed today.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 51550----51475 if it sustain this range for a while with a stop loss of 51180 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 52000---52100 with a stop loss of 52250 or can sell below 51470 with a stop loss of 51700. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.