A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—13.11.2024

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—52053.75--High—52169.05--Low—51006.85--Close—51157.80 on 12.11.2024. 

Support:51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50865.45/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85. 

Resistance:51354.85/51750.10/51996.65/52199.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53741.40/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55827/56135/56218.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a huge loss of 718.95 points. The overall chart setup is weak; it is still into the deep correction mode for its earlier rise and it is also into corrective mode for its recent rise. It is doing see-saw movement with moving averages every other day and today it fell again below all its short & almost all of its medium term moving averages on the daily chart and also below all its short term moving average on the weekly chart and most importantly below one long term moving average of 51223 and other key point of 51202.74(strong pullback threshold point, figure may change) , which is a weak sign and if it remains below these points then fall may accelerate. Furthermore it has made lower to & bottom on the line chart again and few important technical indicators have also turned negative on the daily chart and triggered sell signal today which indicates that if it does not move above 51202.74 & 51223 and sustain on the closing basis, then the downslide may continue with in between short relief rallies. The short & medium term trend is bearish and it has threatened the long term uptrend today and the threat will only dissipate once it moves above 51223(figure will change daily) and sustain on the closing basis.

It is important to mention here that to keep the up momentum going in the month of November-2024, it has to maintain above 51550.15---51475.35----51223----51202.74(some figure may change daily) and sustain on the closing basis, then the up-move can extend, else it may lose steam and head down and break & sustained close below 50865.45 may trigger fresh steep fall.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-

Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on the upside) 50915----50891-----50865.45----50725.76----50617------50602-----50570---50223-----50194----50018-----49901----49713-----49654.65----49591----49366-----49201.72-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756(figures may change), it can bounce back from any of these points, break & close below 50865.45 may trigger fresh fall and thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it. Please note that  the range of 50915----50891-----50865.45----50725----50617---50602-----50570----50223-----50194 and then 50018----49901-----49713-----49654.65----49612----49591----49366(figure will change every day) is a very strong bounce back support range, it has already threatened the long term uptrend today  as it closed below its threshold point of 51223 and thereafter break & close below each point will weaken it further, break and sustained close below 49366 may potentially end the long term uptrend for the time being and finally if it break the range of 48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756 and sustains on the closing basis then the correction could be more painful price-wise & time-wise both, which may please be noted.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-

Please note that to give a ray of hope for a continued up move it has to move above 51202.74 & 51223 (figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, else it will drift down. Please note that to get reasonable strength it has to move above the range of 51475.35----51550.15----51668----51721(figure may change), to gain a strong foothold it has to move above 52355---52494----52578 and sustain on the closing basis and for the strong strength for the continuation of the up-move it has to move above the range of 53331.55-----53357.70----53500.30(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and it will get into the strong up momentum track if it moves above 53613 & 53636.71(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35 or can go beyond it also.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY, WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

It is important to mention here that it is having a see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, now again the overbought  condition is there on the daily, weekly and monthly chart, it  triggered sell  signal today and  few technical indicators are still weak and most importantly  huge negative divergence  is there on the daily,  weekly and monthly chart , therefore all indication together based on the indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down again and may seek lower levels in coming days with intermittent relief rallies and the process has begun today and it seems that the up rally has ended as it closed below its key point of 51223 & 51202.74(figure may change). So watch out how it pans out in next few days ,sustained close below the above points may witness an accelerated fall.

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW IN GENERAL;-

It is into the deep correction mode therefore it is sell on rise market now in general till it gets out of the correction mode or give visible sign of correction completion, but aggressive traders can try both side trades depending on the price action for intraday gains, but long trade could be a risky affair.  

STRENGTH: -

1. It is still in the long-term uptrend; but uptrend it threatened today.

2. It is well above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.

3. Two out of seven important indicators is positive on the daily chart, indicating overbought /neutral condition and triggered sell signal today.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Five out of seven important indicators on the daily chart are negative , given negative divergence, in the overbought/neutral zone, sell signal triggered today. Please note that indicators, on the weekly & monthly chart, also indicating overbought condition, sell signal and negative divergence too.

3. It is into deep correction mode as it is below some of the correction threshold points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55--52487.43---52098.30----52015.06----51549.93----51492.11 ----  (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 50725.73----49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen.

4 The price action was weak today.

5. It slipped into correction mode for its recent rise today as it closed below its threshold point of 52015.06(figure may change).

6. It is below its strong pullback threshold point of 51202.74(figure may change), sustained close below the above point may witness an accelerated fall.

7. It has made lower top & bottom on the line chart again.

8 It is below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 51638---51668---51704----51721----51947(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can drag it down further.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 50870 if it holds this point for some time with a stop loss of 50600 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51475---51550 with a stop loss of 51700 or can sell below 51200 with a stop loss of 51560 It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.