A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—25.11.2024

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—50512.80--High—51271.50--Low—50508.25--Close—51135.40 on 22.11.2024.

Support:51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50865.45/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49688.80/49654.65/49057.40/48636.45/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:51138.90/51750.10/51996.65/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52782.75/52794.95/53180.75/53357.70/53792.85/54247.70/54467.35.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and the open was almost the low for the day and thereafter it steadily moved up during the day and finally ended the day with a handsome gain of 762.50 points. It was a strong up-move and the positive thing was that it closed above its critical points of 50891.64 and as long as it sustains above it on the closing basis chances of up-move will be alive and the broad upside target could be 51182----51265----51550----51700----51919----52020----52178----52578---52680----53363---53532., please note that it may correct at any of these point and then may resume the up-move again. But break & sustained close below 50891.64 & 50550(figure may change) may derail the on-going up move.  

The overall chart setup is still weak; it is still into the deep correction mode, It is still below few of  its short & all medium term moving averages on the daily chart and also below all its short term & few medium term moving average on the weekly chart and below few short term moving average on the monthly chart too and most importantly it is  below few long term moving average also, therefore long term uptrend is still under threat and almost all important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart and in the sell mode. But the good thing is that it has made higher top & bottom on the line chart & higher top on the bar chart and with slight positive divergence. Therefore all l together indicators are giving mixed signal and fall may be ahead in coming days provided it breaks & sustain below the point as mentioned above in the first paragraph.. The short & medium term trend is bearish and the long term uptrend is still under threat and the threat will only dissipate once it moves above 51280(figure will change daily) and sustain on the closing basis.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-

Please note that if it holds the level of 50891.44 then the chances of up-move will be alive and the up-move is likely to extend for sure, if it moves above 51280 and sustain on the closing basis then it will end the long term uptrend threat and it may have smooth up-move. Please note that to get reasonable strength for the up-move to continue it has to move above the range of 51294----51535----51770figure may change), to gain a strong foothold and to give thrust to the up-move it has to move above 52355---52494----52578 and sustain on the closing basis and for the strong strength for the continuation of the up-move it has to move above the range of 53331.55-----53357.70----53500.30(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and it will get into the strong up momentum track if it moves above 53531.30 & 53636.71(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35 or can go beyond it also.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-

Moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on the upside) 50933----50617-----50261----50172-----49934----49847-----49654.65----49622----49520-----49201.72-----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756(figures may change), it can bounce back from any of these points, please note that break & sustained close below 50617 can drag it down to 49654.65 or lower levels. Please note that break & close below each point will weaken it further, but the range of 49934----49520 is the last very strong bounce back support range, if it break & sustain below this range on the closing basis, then it may have an accelerated fall. The long term uptrend is threatened as it is below its main threshold point of 51280, break and sustained close below 49520 may potentially end the long term uptrend for the time being and finally if it break the range of 48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47756 and sustains on the closing basis then the correction could be more painful price-wise & time-wise both, which may please be noted.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart almost all indicators are negative ,sell mode is on , there is huge negative divergence but the only comforting thing is that it is in oversold zone, so today’s up-move can extend a bit, so watch out. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and poised to give sell signal may be this month end. Therefore all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication. The undertone is bearish as of now. 

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW IN GENERAL;-

It is into the deep correction mode therefore it is sell on rise market now in general till it gets out of the correction mode or give visible sign of correction completion, but aggressive traders can try both side trades depending on the price action for intraday gains, but long trade could be a risky affair.  

STRENGTH: -

1. It is still in the long-term uptrend; but the uptrend it threatened.

2. It is well above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.

3. Two out of seven important indicators is positive on the daily chart, indicating oversold condition, in sell mode but not yet broken bottom on the indicator, which is slight positive for it.

4 It is well above its strong pullback threshold point of 50891.64(figure may change), sustained close above this point will help in extending the up-move.

5. It has made higher top & bottom on the line chart again and higher top on the bar chart..

6 The price action was weak today.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Five out of seven important indicators on the daily chart are negative, slight positive divergence, in the oversold/neutral zone and in the sell mode. Please note that indicators, on the weekly chart is oversold (so it may rally a bit), but in sell mode and with huge negative divergence & monthly chart, indicating overbought condition, sell signal and negative divergence too.

3. It is into deep correction mode as it is below some of the correction threshold points of 53636.71-----53500.30---53331.55--52487.43---52098.30----52015.06----51549.93----51492.11 ---- (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 50725.73---- 49201.72---45416.49 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen.

4. It slipped into correction mode for its recent rise today as it closed below its threshold point of 52015.06(figure may change).

5 It is below few of its short-term moving averages now on the daily & weekly chart and the important average range for day is between 51166---51294---51535—51770(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can drag it down further.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 50940------50890 with a stop loss of 50500 or can try long trade if it moves above 51280 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 51000 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51770---51870 with a stop loss of 52050 or can sell if it moves below 50890 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 51160. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.