A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-21.11.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—23529.55—High—23780.65---Low---23464.80---Close----23518.50 on 19.11.2024.

Support:23484.15/23350/23338.70/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22525.65/22303.80/21875.25/21860.25/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21281.45/21137.20/20976.80.

Resistance:23664/23667.20/23816.15/23893.70/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24854.80/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL, VIEW: --   

After 7 days of fall as anticipated it opened on a positive note and had a very smart up move but it could not sustain at the upper level and slipped down and finally ended the day with a moderate gain of 64.70 points. The way today’s movement behaved it seems the up rally may not last long because the technical setup is very weak, so watch-out for next 2-3 trading sessions how it pans-out. It is below its crucial point of 23893.70 and below other few critical points too and if it sustains below it then fall may accelerate but moving down its last strong support range is between 23430(figure will change every day) -----23350 which is supposed to be a strong bounce back range and it did bounce within this range on 18.11.2024, but if it breaks this range and sustain then it may have free fall. Therefore it is suggested that long trade can only be tried if it moves above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis or near or within the range of 23430---23350 with strict stop losses, else avoid because now it is sell on the rise market in general. 

The overall chart setup is weak; it is already into the deep correction mode. It is below all its short & medium term moving averages on the daily chart, also below all short & few medium term moving averages on the weekly chart & below some short term moving average on the monthly chart also and most importantly it is also below almost all the long terms moving average on the daily chart, therefore long term uptrend is under severe threat, which is very concerning. It has broken recent bottom on the line & bar chart both, furthermore all the important technical indicators are negative and sell mode is on and positive divergence has also been negated on the daily chart which indicates that further fall may be ahead in coming days. The short & medium term trend is bearish and it has threatened the long term uptrend and the threat will only dissipate once it moves above 23542----23575----23663—23692---24088---24203 & 24330(figure will change daily) and sustain on the closing basis.

HEAD & SHOULDER PATTERN VISIBLE ON THE DAILY CHART:-

It has decisively broken the neckline today which is placed at 24753.15 and if it sustains below it then the maximum downside could be in the range of 23200---23100. Please note that if it bounce back above 24753.15 and sustain then this pattern will be negated and it may resume the strong uptrend. This is a very powerful pattern and rarely fails.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE DOWNSIDE:-

Moving down from here it may find good support at 23456----23430----23350—23338.70---23110.80---22794.70----22775(few figures may change daily). Please note that it is below its key & crucial support point of 23893.70 and if it sustain below it on the closing basis for a longer period of time then the correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both. But moving down further it has only one last critical & strong support range of 23430----23350, which is a strong bounce back point therefore it is likely to stage a recovery from here and it did stage a recovery within this range on 18.11.2024 , but the undertone is very weak and if it break and sustained below this range on the closing basis then it will potentially end the long term uptrend for the time being and may seek much lower levels in coming days.

POSSIBLE MOVE ON THE UPSIDE:-

Please note that to give a ray of hope to regain up movement again it has to move above the range of its critical   points of 23630.58---23893.70----24041.16----24173---24330(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, if it moves above 23630.58(weak pullback threshold point) and sustain on the closing basis then it may have a feeble up-move, the decider point is 23893.70 if it moves and sustain above it on the closing basis then it could somewhat ensure that the up-move can extend further, if it moves above 24041.16(strong pullback threshold point) and sustain on the closing basis then it will  make sure that the up-move can extend further for sure, if it moves above 24173 and sustain on the closing basis it will strengthen it further, if it moves above 24330 and sustain on the closing basis, then it will end the long term uptrend threat and if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it is likely that it will strongly extend the up-move and may resume the big up-move too. But to gain a strong foothold for the continuation of the up move it has to move above the range of 24649---24726---24835----24991(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, and if it moves above 25370----25648----25714.81 & 25917.64(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis then it may gain extraordinary strength and it will get into the good up momentum track if it moves above 26043.29 (figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY, WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

It is important to mention here that it is having see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the  monthly chart is still present, but  on the daily & weekly chart  it is in the oversold  zone now,  sell mode and positive divergence negated, therefore it has to be seen how it pans out in the next few trading sessions  because the overall technical setup is still very weak on the daily, weekly & monthly chart and most importantly  huge negative divergence  is there on the  weekly & monthly chart  and sell  mode is also there on the weekly chart, so all together these developments are painting a mix picture but tilted towards weakness, so keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication. As  expected it staged a rally today but at the end of the day it turned out to be a weak rally therefore it may not last as the undertone is hugely bearish. So watch-out.

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET NOW IN GENERAL;-

It is into the correction mode therefore it is sell on rise market now in general till it gets out of the correction mode or give visible sign of correction completion, but aggressive traders can try both side trades depending on the price action for intraday gains, but long trade could be a risky affair.  

STRENGTH: -

1. It is still in the long-term uptrend; but uptrend is threatened.

2. It is far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. One out of seven important technical indicators suggest oversold condition, so it may have a relief rally anytime soon, it did have an up-move today, but not likely to last.

4. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Six out of  seven important technical indicators on the daily chart are negative, indicating oversold condition, sell signal triggered , almost all indicators on the weekly chart  are also negative indicates oversold condition, sell mode and negative divergence and finally on the monthly chart it indicates overbought condition and negative divergence.    

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. It is into correction deep mode now as it closed below some of the correction threshold points of 26043.29----25917.64---25714.81----25106.68----25098.32-----25064.27-----24521.63--- 24367.34--24047.39----23659.18--- (figures may change). The other important correction threshold points are at 21848.52 (figure may change) and if it sustain below these points correction will deepen. 

4. It is below almost all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for the day is between 23886----23961----24023----24072----24165---24177---24183---24290----24596---24642--24709 (figure will change every day), sustained close below this range can accelerate the down move.

5. It is below its strong pullback threshold point of 24041.16(figure may change).

7. It threatened the long term uptrend as it is below almost all its important threshold point of 23542----23575----23663—23692---24088---24203 & 24330(figure will change daily).

8. It has broken its recent bottom on the line & bar chart both.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 23465 with a stop loss of 23400 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23680—23730 with a stop loss of 23800 or can sell if it moves below 23440 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 23525.  It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com