A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-5.7.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-24369.95—High—24401—Low—24281--Close-24302.15 on 3.7.2024.

Support:24236.35/24183/24174/24010.10/23992/23952/23804/23768/23664/23630/23573/23481.05/23456/23441.95/23411.90/23397/23338.70/23282/23110.80/22794.70/22775.20/22526.60/22417/22303.80/22297/22224.35/22126.80/21860/21821.05/21801.45/21777.65/21731.40/21727.75/21710.20.

Resistance: 24309.15/24370/24401/24500/24678/24695.

OVERALL VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter it had both side moves during the day and in the process it hit a new all-time high of 24401 but finally ended the day with a meager gain of 15.65 points. Although it hit new all-time high today but ended the day near the low of the day after a long time, furthermore technically it slipped into correction mode as it closed shade below its threshold point of 24303.01 which is a weak sign. But the overall technical setup  is exhibiting extraordinary strength but the vertical rise and volatility is also concern and it could prove to be a dampener in the coming days, which please keep in mind. The technical setup is good as of now , therefore it is likely continue the up move provided it holds its first key range of 24174---24152.96---23123.85-----24119.13-----24092---24010.60-----23992.95-----23985.80-----23953-----23932.78-----23792.1  & 23667.10(figure may change) sustained break below 24174 will be an alert sign for an impending fall, break below 24123.85 may trigger fall, sustained break below 24010.60 & 23985.80 may confirm that a big fall may be ahead and  thereafter break below each point will deepen the correction and finally sustained break below 23667.10 may accelerate the fall.  However even if it breaks the aforesaid range and moves down but as long as it holds the range of 23617----23594.61---23566----23560.57-------23350----23338.70----23297.55----23206.65----23110.80(figure may change) it could bounce back from any of these points, else fall may deepen. Please note that break below 23650 will be a final alert sign for fresh fall to start, break below its critical bottom & top of 23350 & 23338.70 on the closing basis could be a deep warning sign and thereafter break below each support point will weaken it further and pull it down and finally sustained break below 23110.80 may accelerate the fall. It is important to mention here that despite the recent rise some important technical indicators on the daily, weekly and monthly charts are still weak and showing overbought condition also, which indicates that it may deeply correct in the coming days/weeks, but please note that as long as price action remains good there is no major threat for it to move down and the price action has been more or less consistently good recently and it was positive today also. However in light of vertical rise, some weak indicators, overbought condition and volatility, it is suggested to trade the market with extreme caution and alert because it may witness an accelerated fall in coming days. Since it is out of all corrective modes it is buy on decline market now, but short trade can also be attempted on the rise at appropriate points for intraday gains.

NOTE: - TO KEEP THE UP MOMENTUM GOING IN THE MONTH OF JULY-2024 IT HAS TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 24174 ON THE CLOSING BASIS ELSE IT MAY START TO DRIFT DOWN. IT IS SUGGETED TO AVOID LONG TRADE BELOW 24174 AND BELOW 24272 FOR THE DAY. SUSTAINED BREAK BELOW 24272 MAY TRIGGER FALL FOR THE DAY 

 STRENGTH:-

1. It is in the long term uptrend now.   

2. It is well above its critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. It is in the new zone.

4. It is above all its short & medium  term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, and the important range is between 24092----23988----23953----23855---23682----23650(figure will change every day), sustained break below this range can trigger down move again.

5. It has made higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart both.

6.  Five out of seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart.

7. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS:-

1. Technically it slipped into correction mode today as it closed below its threshold point of 24303.01, its other important corrective threshold points are at 24152.96---24119.13---23932.78---23792.13---23664.79---23630.74.

2. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

3. Volatility can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline if it holds 24281 for some time with a stop loss of 24230 , but aggressive traders can also try long trade  on sharp decline near or within the range of  24123---24070 with a stop loss of 23980. It could be a risky trade mind you.

 2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24380---24400 with a stop loss of 24460 or can sell if it moves below 24270 with a stop loss of 24335. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com