A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—3.7.2024

 

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CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—52793.75--High—52828.45--Low—51996.65---Close—52168.10 on 2.7.2024.

Support:51957/51823/51470/51133.20/50889.65/50467.77/50153.81/50122.13/49974.75/49688.85/49202/49057.40/48636.45/48381.95/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45.                           

Resistance: 52218/ 52508/52966/53064/53180.75/53281/54257/54604/54815.

OVERALL VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note but did not move much higher after that and started moving down steadily and finally ended the day with a loss of 406.65 points. The technical setup is still good but volatility is a concern and it could drag it down sharply in coming days, furthermore it has made lower top & bottom on the line chart, it fell below few short term moving averages after a long time  and it is also into corrective mode for its recent rise as it has moved below some of its first key support range point of 52698.87----52369----52341---52319.28---52192-----52032.10--=52019----51980 & 51957 (figures may change) on the closing basis, now break below each point will deepen the correction further and sustained break below 51957 (it bounced back from close to this point today) will be a warning sign and may trigger fresh fall. However even if it breaks the above mentioned points, but moving down as long as it holds the range of 51718.14----51624---51504.47-----51188-----51133.20----51115.34----50833(figures may change) the chance of the up move will be alive but break below 51133.20 & 51115.34 could be a deep warning sign for a big down move to start and finally sustained break below the range of 48636.45---48292.25 &48203.45 will trigger fresh fall and that could be moderate to sharp in the intensity. It is important to mention here some important technical indicators on the daily, weekly and monthly chart are still weak and showing overbought condition also, which indicates that it may deeply correct in the coming days/weeks, but please note that as long as price action remains good there is no major threat for it to move down and the price action has been more or less consistently o.k. recently but it is was mixed today and was on the weaker side. In light of vertical rise, some weak indicators, overbought condition, weak price action and volatility, it is suggested to trade the market with extreme caution and alert because it may fall in an accelerated pace in coming days. Since it is into correction mode it is sell on the rise market till it get out of the corrective mode, but long trade can also be attempted on decline at appropriate support points for intraday gains. It will get out of all corrective modes if it closes above 52698.87.

NOTE: - TO KEEP THE UP MOMENTUM GOING IN THE MONTH OF JULY-2024 IT HAS TO MOVE ABOVE 53180.75 AND SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS, ELSE IT MAY MOVE SIDE WAYS OR DRIFT DOWN.  SIMILARLY SUSTAINED BREAK BELOW THE RANGE OF 52698.87----52319.28---52032.10 & 51957   MAY TRIGGER FRESH FALL.   

  STRENGTH:-

1. It is in the long term uptrend.

2. It is well above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.

3. It is in the new zone.

4. It is above all its short, medium and long term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, and the important range for now is between 52369----52192----51986----51624---51188---50833(figure will change every day), sustained break below this range can trigger down move again.

5. Four out of seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart.

6. It still has higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart.

WEAKNESS:-

1. The price action was weak for the last 2 days and it was mixed today.

2. It slipped into correction mode as it is below its threshold point of 52698.87 & 52319.28. The other important correction threshold points are at 52032.10---51718.14---51504.47---51115.34(figures may change). Please note that break below each point will make the correction deeper.                                                            

3. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

4. Volatility can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 51996 with a stop loss of 51850, else avoid. For safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade till it closes above 52352 and sustain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 52575---52650 with a stop loss of 52800 or can sell below 51960 with a stop loss of 52260. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.