A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—10.7.2024

 

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CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—52390.50--High—52626.60--Low—52292.95---Close—52568.80 on 9.7.2024.

Support:52351.15/52342.25/5224670/51996.65/51957/51138.90/51133.20/50252.95/49974.75/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.                           

Resistance:53180.75/53357.70/53477/53503/53575/53633/53773/53913/53970/54070/54139/54257/54365/54604/54815/55097.

OVERALL VIEW: --

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 143 points. The chart setup is still good but the volatility and overbought condition is still a concern, furthermore is already into short correction mode for its recent rise as it is way below its threshold point of 53036.49 and also below some other important points of 52834.06---52667---52650, most of the important technical indicators have turned negative, so all together it is showing  weakness or fatigue and pointing that it could head down in coming days, please note that it is down now but not out as chart setup is still not bad, chart setup will turn bad if it closes below 51996.65 & 51957. Therefore if it manages to hold its balance first key support range points of 52508.90----52454.47-----52440-----52327-----52268.86-----52167.20-----51996.65 & 51957 (figures may change) on the closing basis then it could stage a bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again, please note that if it holds 52508.90 on the closing basis chances of up move will be alive, else it may slide down and sustained break below 51996.65 & 51957 may accelerate the fall.  It is important to mention here that  even if it breaks the above mentioned range, but moving down as long as it holds its last critical range of 51853.33---51797-----51782----51639.66-----51351.15----51342.25-----51250.53-----51133.20(figures may change) the chance of the up move will still be alive but sustained break below 51782 will signal that a big fall may be in the offing, break below 51351.15 & 51342.25 will confirm the fall and sustained break below 51133.20 may accelerate the fall and finally sustained break below the range of 48636.45---48460---48292.25 &48203.45 will trigger fresh fall and it could be moderate to sharp in the intensity and will threaten the long term uptrend also. It is important to mention here that most of the important technical indicators on the daily chart has turned weak today, and some indicators on the weekly and monthly chart are already weak and showing overbought condition, which indicates that it may deeply correct and may head for 51661 or much lower levels in the coming days/week/months, but please note that as long as price action remains good there is no major threat for it to move down and the price action is not consistent and it was mixed  today, so keep an eye on the price action for further direction. Since it gotten into correction mode today it is sell on the rise market in general but both side trade can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains.  

NOTE: - TO KEEP THE UP MOMENTUM GOING-ON IN THE MONTH OF JULY-2024 IT HAS TO MOVE ABOVE 53180.75 AND SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS, ELSE IT MAY MOVE SIDE WAYS OR DRIFT DOWN. CLOSE BELOW 52246.70 MAY TRIGGER FALL AND CLOSE  BELOW 51996.65 & 51957 MAY ACCELERATE THE FALL.

  STRENGTH:-

1. It is in the long term uptrend.

2. It is well above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.

3. It is above all its short, medium and long term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, and the important average range for today is between 52662----52650----52440----52327---51797---51782(figure will change every day), sustained break below this range can trigger down move. It is below few averages now.

4. Two out of seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart.

5. It still has higher top & bottom on the line and bar chart.

WEAKNESS:-

1. The price action was mixed today.

2. It slipped into correction mode today as it closed below its threshold point of 53036.49 & 52834.06, the other important correction threshold points are at 52454.47----52167.29---51853.33----51639.66----51250.53(figures may change). Please note that break below each point will make the correction deeper.                                                            

3. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

4. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

5. Five out of seven important indicators are negative now.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 52246 with a stop loss of 51940, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair.  

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 52800---52900 with a stop loss of 53000 or can sell if it maintains for some time below 52300 with a stop loss of 52570. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.