A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—23.7.2024

 

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CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—52145.60--High—52427--Low—51874.55---Close—52280.40 on 22.7.2024.

Support:52246.70/51996.65/51957/51749.45/51138.90/51133.20/50252.95/49974.75/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.                           

Resistance:52342.25/52351.15/52794.55/53180.75/53357.70/53477/53503/53575/53633/53773/53913/53970/54070/54139/54257/54365/54604/54815/55097.

OVERALL VIEW: --

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day flat with a meager gain of 14.80 points. The chart setup has weakened a bit, it is down but not yet out for the continuation of the up move as long as it holds 52129 on the closing basis(it did break this level intraday today but bounced back to close above it), however the volatility is  a concern, furthermore , it is already into short correction mode for its recent rise as it is way below its correction threshold points of 53036.49----52834.06 & 52454.47 and it has also moved below almost all its short term moving averages 52484---52458----52376---52373---52369 today and most of the important technical indicators have turned negative on the daily chart, so all together it is showing weakness and pointing that it could head down further in coming days, however if it could still manages to hold its balance first key support range points of 52129-----52103----51996.65----&51957 (figures may change) on the closing basis then the chance of up move will still be alive. I once again repeat that if it maintains above 52129(figure may change) on the closing basis then there is a possibility that it may resume the up move again, else it may slide down and close below 52103---51996.65 & 51957 may accelerate the fall and will make the chart setup very weak.  It is important to mention here that  even if it breaks the above mentioned range, but moving down as long as it holds its last critical range of 51639.66-----51133.20(figures may change) then there is a bleak chance that it could still bounce back but sustained break and close below 51639.66 will signal that a big  correction may be ahead,  sustained break below 51133.20 may accelerate the fall, break and close below 48875 will threaten the long term uptrend and finally sustained break and close below the range of 48636.45---48292.25 &48203.45 will trigger fresh fall and it could be sharp in the intensity. It is important to mention here that most of the important technical indicators on the daily chart has turned weak today, and some indicators on the weekly and monthly chart are already weak and showing overbought condition, which indicates that it may deeply correct in the coming days/week/months, but please note that as long as price action remains good there is no major threat for it to move down and the price action is not consistent off late and it was weak today, so keep an eye on the price action for further direction. Since it is into correction mode therefore it is sell on the rise market in general but both side trade can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains.  

NOTE: - IF IT HOLDS 52129 ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN THE CHANCE OF UP MOVE WILL BE ALIVE, ELSE IT MAY DECLINE.CLOSE BELOW 51996.65 & 51957 MAY WITNESS AN ACCELERATED FALL.

  STRENGTH:-

1. It is in the long term uptrend, but break below 48826 will threaten the long term uptrend.

2. It is well above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.

3. One out of seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart.

4. As long as it holds pullback threshold point of 52129(figure may change), chances of up move will be alive.

WEAKNESS:-

1. The price action was weak today.

2. It is already into correction mode as it is below its threshold point of 53036.49---- 52834.06 & 52454.47(figure may change), the other important correction threshold point is at 51639.66(figures may change). Please note that break below each point will make the correction deeper.                                                       

3. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

4. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

5. Six out of seven important indicators are negative now.

6. It is below almost all its short term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for today is between 52484----52458----52376----52373----52369---52103(figure will change every day), sustained break below this range can trigger big down move.

7. It has made lower bottom on the line & bar chart.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 52129 if it holds this level for some time with a stop loss of 51940, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains. 

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 52600---52700 with a stop loss of 52840 or can sell if it maintains below 52129 with a stop loss of 52360. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.