A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-16.7.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-24587.60--High-24635.05—Low—24522.75--Close-24586.70 on 15.7.2024.

Support:24461.05/24174/24168.85//23992.65/23985.80/23667.10/23398/23350/23338.70/23206.65/23110.80/22794.70/22768.40/22526.60/22417/2303.80/22297/22224.35/22126.80/21860/21821.05/21801.45/21777.65/21731.40/21727.75/21710.20.

Resistance:24592.20/24633/24678/24695/24749/24777/24865/25152.

OVERALL VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and in the process hit a new all-time high of 24635.05 and finally ended the day with a gain of 84.55 points. It is exhibiting extraordinary strength and the overall technical chart structure is great but the vertical rise, wild swings and volatility is a concern and it could drag it down sharply in the coming days. Since the  technical chart setup is  good therefore  it can  continue the up move provided it holds its first key support range of 24518.64-----24481.83-----24461------24405----24351----24323----24331.78-----24240---24236----24141.80----24052----24049----23992.70-----23985.80-----23843.60---23667.10(figure may change) break and close below 24518.64 will push it into short term correction mode for its recent rise, thereafter break below each point will weaken it further, close below  24240 & 24141.80 may accelerate the fall , break and sustained close below 24049---23992.70---23985.80 & 23843.60 may confirm that a big fall may be ahead and finally  break and close below 23667.10 may further accelerate the fall. It is important to mention here that even if it breaks the above mentioned range a glimmer of hope is there that it can still bounce back provided it holds the last range key support points of 23350----23338.70----23297.55----23206.65----23110.80(figure may change), else fall may deepen. Please note that break below its critical bottom & top of 23350 & 23338.70 on the closing basis can pull it down further and finally sustained break below 23110.80 may accelerate the fall. It is important to mention here that despite the recent rise some important technical indicators on the daily, weekly and monthly charts are still weak and showing overbought condition also, which indicates that it may deeply correct in the coming days/weeks, but please note that as long as price action remains good there is no major threat for it to move down and the price action was positive today, so keep an eye on the price action for further direction. Since it is out of corrective mode today, therefore it is buy on decline market in general now but both side trade can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains.  

NOTE: - CLOSE BELOW 24315.95 MAY TRIGGER FRESH FALL.

 STRENGTH:-

1. It is in the long term uptrend now.   

2. It is well above its critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. It is in the new zone.

4. It is above all its short & medium  term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, and the important range is between 24405----24351----24323----24236---24052----24049(figure will change every day), sustained break below this range can trigger down move again.

6. Four out of seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart.

7. It is out of all corrective modes and the important correction threshold points are at 24518.64-----24481.83----24331.78 & 23843.60(figures may change). Please note that break below each point will make the correction deeper.    

8. The price action was positive today.

9. It has crossed all top on the line & bar chart both

WEAKNESS:-.

1. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 24558 if it holds this level for some time with a stop loss of 24490 or if it moves above 24595 with a stop loss of 24530, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24670---24700 with a stop loss of 24770 or can sell if it moves below 24500 with a stop loss of 24595 It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com