A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-31.5.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-22617.45—High—22705.75—Low—22417--Close-22488.65on 30.5.2024.

Support:22348.05/22305.25/22297/22224.35/22126.80/21883/21875/21860/21821.05/21801.45/21777.65/21731.40/21727.75/21710.20.

Resistance: 22526.60/22554.68/22568.40/22678.85/22730/22775.70/22783.35/22794.70/22958/23039/23060/23092/23117/23167/23201/23282/23397/23444/23525/23768.

It opened with a down gap and then it had both side moves during the day and in the process it filled today’s gap and finally ended the day with a loss of 216.05 points. The gap it created on 29.5.2024 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 2-3 days which is technically possible then it can come up to 22859, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being but eventually it will fill the gap some day. It is into correction mode now as it is below its threshold point of 22806.42, it is also way below its other most critical points of 22794.70 & 22775.75, furthermore today it has closed below almost all its short term moving averages on the daily chart which is between 22744---22704---22662---22587---22567---22526.60----22474, all together it is exhibiting weakness as of now and sustained break below 22474 can have an accelerated fall.

STRENGTH:-

1. It is in the long term uptrend now. Break below 21812 will threaten the long term uptrend. 

2. It is well above its critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024.

3 Moving down the possible good bounce back support point could be at 22466---22407---22269----22126.80---22098----22079----21860----21821.05----21812----21777.65----21710.20(figures may change), , it slipped into correction mode and went below other key points also as mentioned below, which is a weak sign, already below the warning sign pint of 22526.60, sustained break below 21812 will threaten the long term uptrend and sustained break below 22079 can pull it down to 21821.05 & 21777.65  levels and finally sustained break below these points could be an ultimate warning sign and can drag it down to devastatingly lower levels in coming days and may make the correction more painful time wise and value wise both, which may please be noted. So 21821.05---21812 & 21777.65 is a very strong and may be the last bounce back support points as of now or make or break point or benchmark points. So be watchful.

4.  Three out of five important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart.

5. It has been making higher top and bottom on the line and bar chart recently.

WEAKNESS:-

1. It slipped into correction mode today and it will get out of it once it moves above 22806.42 and sustain on the closing basis and then it could get back on the up momentum track again.

2. It is below its recent most important key points of 22775.75 & 22794.70.

3. It slipped below almost all except one of its short term moving averages on the daily  chart and the important range of averages is between 22744---22704---22662---22587---22567---22526.60----22474(figures will change every day) for the day, sustained close below this range may witness an accelerated fall.

4. It is below its key point of 22526.60.

5. It is below its pullback threshold point of 22580.75(figure may change), if it moves above it and sustain on the closing basis then there will be a ray of hope that it could continue the up move, else it may continue to move down.

6. Some technical indicators are still weak on the daily/weekly and monthly charts and pointing that it could head down in the coming days, weeks and months, so be watchful.

7. Volatility can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

8. The price action has been mixed for the last few days and today it was negative.

OVERALL VIEW: --Last two day move have thrashed its technical setup. It is into correction mode and way below its critical point of 22794.70 & 22775.75, furthermore today it also slipped below almost all its short term moving averages on the daily chart and the range is between22744---22704---22662---22587---22567---22526.60----22474(figure will change every day), which is huge weak sign and if it fails to stage a sharp bounce back in next-3-4 trading sessions and moves above this range then it can witness an accelerated fall. It is in the long term uptrend but into correction mode now therefore both side trades can be attempted depending on the price action. But please note that both side trades amid volatility and in a corrective market could be a risky affair, so be alert and watchful in your trades.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried if it holds 22474 for some time with a stop loss of 22400, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22650---675 with a stop loss of 22750 or can sell if it moves below 22400 with a stop loss of 22490. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com