A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—14.5.2024

 

2

2

2

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—47389.80--High—47841.60--Low—46983.25---Close—47754.10 on 13.5.2024.

Support:  47737.20/47313.35/47279.80/46919.70/46579.05/46529.05/45828.80.                           

Resistance:48161.25/48203.45/48292.25/48636.45/ 49057.80/49173.36/49262/49396.75/49446.69/49676/49732/49883/49974.75.        

It opened on a negative note and went down further but bounced back from near its 2^nd last critical support point of 46878 after 8 days of fall in a row and finally ended the day with a gain of 333 points. It is still into deep correction mode for its recent rise. But the good point is that it closed above its pullback threshold point of 47689.25 and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then this rally can extend further, else down move may continue.

STRENGTH:-

1. It is in the long term uptrend as of now. But break below 46878 will threaten the uptrend.  

2. The short range for it now is between 49974.75---47737.20 and the long range is between 49974.75----46579.05.

3. Today it closed above its pullback threshold point of 47689.25(figure may change) and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the rally can extend and the possible upside target or resistance points could be at 48126---48203---48292---48479---48636.45—48832---49269----49377.

4. Moving down the possible good bounce back point could be at 47737.20---47380---47258---46878---46579.05, sustained break below 46878 will threaten the long term uptrend and finally sustained break below 46579.05 could be a warning sign and can drag it down to devastatingly lower levels in coming days and may make the on-going correction more painful time wise and value wise both, which may please be noted. So 46878 &46579.05 is a very strong and may be the last bounce back support points as of now or make or break point or benchmark point.

WEAKNESS:-

1. It is into deep correction mode now for its recent rise.

2. It is below its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 &48636.45, please note that it is must to stay above these point to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2024.It will catch up momentum above 48636.45 only.

3. It is below all its short term moving averages on the daily chart and some below the weekly chart also and the important range of averages is between 48484---48260---48205---48125(figures will change every day), sustained close above this range may provide good strength and an impetus to move up.

4. It is below some of its medium term moving averages on the daily chart.

5. It has broken its recent bottom on the line and bar chart.

6. Technical indicators are weak on the daily/weekly and monthly charts and pointing that it could head down to much lower levels in coming days/weeks and months.

7. The price action has been more or less consistently weak for the last few days.

OVERALL VIEW:--The overall technical setup is weak as of now; therefore further fall looks inevitable in coming days but today’s up move can extend if it sustains its pullback threshold point of 47689.25 on the closing basis. But it is in correction mode therefore it is sell on the rise market now or sell on the price breakdown.  So safe traders can try long trade if it holds 47689.25 on the closing basis, else avoid. But aggressive traders can try long trade on decline at important support points or range for pullback gains. The long term trend is still up, but the short term bias is negative as of now. Please note that today’s move was positive.

TRADING CALL: --                                                                   

1. Aggressive traders can try long trade on decline near 47690 if it hold it for some time with a stop loss of 47400 or if it moves above 47842 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 47650 or on the sharp decline near or  within the range of 46878-----46580 with a stop loss of 46450.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 48200 —48300 with a stop loss of 48400 or can sell below 47400 with a stop loss of 47760.  It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.